je.st
news
Tag: cristobal
Tropical Storm Cristobal Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-06-07 10:49:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sun, 07 Jun 2020 08:49:24 GMT
Tags: map
storm
tropical
surge
Tropical Storm Cristobal Graphics
2020-06-07 10:46:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 07 Jun 2020 08:46:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 07 Jun 2020 08:46:41 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
cristobal
Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 23
2020-06-07 10:45:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 070845 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2020 Cristobal continues to resemble a subtropical cyclone more than a tropical cyclone. The convection near the center remains limited, although it has become a little better organized during the past several hours. In addition, aircraft and scatterometer data show that the radius of maximum winds remains at or above 90 n mi. These data also suggest that a 45 kt intensity may be a bit generous, but since the central pressure remains near 993 mb the intensity has not changed for this advisory. The initial motion is 360/10 between a deep-layer ridge to Cristobal's east and a mid- to upper-level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico. This general motion should continue for 12-18 h, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest due to a mid-latitude ridge passing north of the cyclone. After 36 h, a turn toward the north and north-northeast is expected as Cristobal or its remnants encounter the mid-latitude westerlies. There are no important changes to either the track guidance or the forecast track since the last advisory. The broad nature of the cyclone and significant dry air entrainment is likely to prevent intensification before landfall, and the new intensity forecast holds the intensity constant at 45 kt until that time. Weakening is expected after landfall, with Cristobal weakening below tropical-storm strength just after the 24 h point. The new intensity forecast shows slight re-intensification as the system become extratropical at 72-96 h in agreement with the global model guidance. Cristobal remains a broad and asymmetric storm. Therefore, one should not focus on the exact forecast track, as the associated winds, storm surge, and rainfall will extend well away the center. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for those areas. Life-threatening storm surge remains possible in other portions of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Tropical storm force winds should spread along the northern Gulf coast from central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle, including metropolitan New Orleans today, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for this area. These winds will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobals center. 3. Heavy rainfall will continue across north Florida this morning, spreading from east to west across the eastern and central Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle into Louisiana today. The Central Gulf Coast region will be most prone to issues after the passage of the center of Cristobal from Sunday night into Monday. This heavy rain will move up the Lower and Mid Mississippi Valley Monday into Tuesday, then across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains Tuesday and Tuesday night. Flash flooding, and new and renewed significant river flooding is possible, especially where heavier rainfall occurs over portions of the Gulf Coast through the Mississippi Valley. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 27.3N 90.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 28.7N 90.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 30.8N 91.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 08/1800Z 33.3N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 09/0600Z 36.6N 92.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 09/1800Z 40.9N 91.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 10/0600Z 46.0N 89.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/0600Z 52.0N 84.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/0600Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Cristobal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2020-06-07 10:39:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUN 07 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 070839 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 0900 UTC SUN JUN 07 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT APALACHICOLA 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PENSACOLA FL 34 6 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 290N 870W 34 22 X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) MOBILE AL 34 21 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) GULFPORT MS 34 58 1(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) STENNIS MS 34 71 2(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) BURAS LA 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) BURAS LA 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JACKSON MS 34 2 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 91 2(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 1 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 910W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BATON ROUGE LA 34 51 12(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MORGAN CITY LA 34 90 2(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LAFAYETTE LA 34 30 5(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) NEW IBERIA LA 34 41 6(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) GFMX 280N 930W 34 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FORT POLK LA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LAKE CHARLES 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAMERON LA 34 8 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PENSACOLA NAS 34 19 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) KEESLER AB 34 43 2(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Cristobal (AT3/AL032020)
2020-06-07 10:39:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SQUALLS WITH TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS REACH THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER... ...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 the center of Cristobal was located near 27.3, -90.1 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
cristobal
Sites : [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] next »