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Tropical Storm Olaf Public Advisory Number 5
2021-09-08 22:46:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 082046 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Olaf Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 ...OLAF MOVING SLOWLY AND PARALLEL TO THE MEXICAN COAST... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 107.7W ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas to Todos Santos. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Los Barriles to Santa Fe. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Cabo San Lucas to Todos Santos A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Santa Fe A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be required later tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 107.7 West. Olaf is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). This general motion along with an increase in forward speed are expected through Friday. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by Friday night, followed by a turn toward the west on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will move just to the southwest of southern Baja California Sur on Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Olaf could be near hurricane strength by late Thursday. The storm is expected to begin weakening on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area in Baja California Sur Thursday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Baja California Sur by late Thursday or Thursday night. RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of far southern Baja California Sur Thursday through Friday. This rainfall may trigger flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Olaf is expected to generate swells that will affect portions of the coasts of Baja California Sur and Sinaloa by Thursday, spreading northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Olaf Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-09-08 22:46:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 082046 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 2100 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO TODOS SANTOS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM LOS BARRILES TO SANTA FE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO TODOS SANTOS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM LOS BARRILES TO SANTA FE A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 107.7W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 107.7W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 107.5W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.2N 108.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.2N 109.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 22.3N 110.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.2N 112.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 23.5N 114.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.5N 115.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 23.1N 118.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 22.4N 120.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 107.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 09/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Olaf Graphics
2021-09-08 19:53:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 08 Sep 2021 17:53:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 08 Sep 2021 15:29:04 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Olaf (EP5/EP152021)
2021-09-08 19:53:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...OLAF STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD... As of 12:00 PM MDT Wed Sep 8 the center of Olaf was located near 19.1, -107.5 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Olaf Public Advisory Number 4A
2021-09-08 19:53:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 081753 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Olaf Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 1200 PM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 ...OLAF STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 107.5W ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Santa Fe A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 107.5 West. Olaf is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general motion along with an increase in forward speed are expected through Friday. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by Friday night, followed by a turn toward the west on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will move just to the southwest of southern Baja California Sur on Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Olaf could be near hurricane strength by late Thursday. The storm is expected to begin weakening on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (115 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Baja California Sur by late Thursday or Thursday night. RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches across the southern portions of Baja California Sur Thursday through Friday. This rainfall may trigger flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Olaf is expected to generate swells that will affect portions of the coasts of Baja California Sur and Sinaloa by Thursday, spreading northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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