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Tropical Storm Mindy Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-09-08 22:53:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 082053 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM MINDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132021 2100 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM MEXICO BEACH TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MEXICO BEACH TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 86.3W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 86.3W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 86.8W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 30.3N 84.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 31.3N 80.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 32.3N 75.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 32.9N 72.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 33.4N 69.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 33.3N 68.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.0N 86.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 09/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Tropical Storm Olaf Graphics
2021-09-08 22:49:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 08 Sep 2021 20:49:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 08 Sep 2021 21:34:58 GMT
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Tropical Storm Olaf Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-09-08 22:47:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 082047 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Olaf Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 Olaf's appearance has remained steady today and the storm is characterized by a large curved band that encompasses much of the circulation. There is good outflow in all quadrants, indicative of a low-shear environment. An earlier ASCAT pass sampled peak winds of 37 kt, and this data along with a blend of the latest Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB indicate that the initial intensity is around 40 kt. The storm is forecast to remain over warm waters and in a moist environment for the next 36 hours. Therefore, additional strengthening is likely during that time period. In a couple of days, the cyclone is forecast to begin moving over cooler waters, and into a drier and a much more stable atmospheric environment. This should result in rapid weakening, and Olaf is expected to become a remnant low this weekend. The latest NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the previous one, and continues to be in good agreement with the IVCN intensity consensus aid. Although the NHC forecast does not explicitly show Olaf becoming a hurricane, this could still occur Thursday or Thursday night. Olaf continues to move slowly northwestward, or 325/5 kt. A mid-level ridge building over northern Mexico should help maintain this heading for a couple of days with a gradual increase in forward speed. By Friday night, Olaf is expected to turn west-northwestward as it weakens, and by Saturday a westward motion is forecast when the shallow cyclone is steered by the surrounding low-level flow. The overall model guidance shifted slightly to the east through 48 hours, and thus the NHC track forecast was nudged in that direction for that time frame. Because of this track shift, probabilities of tropical storm and hurricane conditions have increased for southern portions of Baja California Sur. Therefore, the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning for portions of this area. After 48 h, the guidance has shifted a little to the south, and the NHC forecast was tweaked in that direction as well. Key Messages: 1. Olaf is forecast to strengthen to near hurricane intensity while it passes to the southwest of the southern portion of Baja California Sur Thursday and Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible across that area beginning late Thursday. Interests there should continue to monitor the progress of Olaf. 2. Heavy rains associated with Tropical Storm Olaf are possible across portions of far southern Baja California Sur Thursday through Friday. This will pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 19.4N 107.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 20.2N 108.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 21.2N 109.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 22.3N 110.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 23.2N 112.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 23.5N 114.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 23.5N 115.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 23.1N 118.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1800Z 22.4N 120.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Olaf Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2021-09-08 22:47:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 082047 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM OLAF WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 2100 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OLAF WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 2 27(29) 30(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 2 23(25) 22(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ISLAS MARIAS 34 10 5(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MAZATLAN 34 1 5( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 110W 34 13 24(37) 3(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) 20N 110W 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Summary for Tropical Storm Olaf (EP5/EP152021)
2021-09-08 22:46:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...OLAF MOVING SLOWLY AND PARALLEL TO THE MEXICAN COAST... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 3:00 PM MDT Wed Sep 8 the center of Olaf was located near 19.4, -107.7 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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