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Tropical Storm Larry Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-09-01 16:50:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM CVT Wed Sep 01 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 011450 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Larry Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 200 PM CVT Wed Sep 01 2021 Satellite imagery this morning shows that Larry is becoming better organized, with curved convective bands increasing around the center. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates were in the 35-55 kt range around 12Z, and ASCAT data near the time showed 40 kt winds. Based on increasing organization since that time, the initial intensity is increased to 45 kt. Larry is moving quickly westward, although there is some uncertainty in the forward speed due to the possibility the center re-formed during the night. The best estimate of the motion is 270/19 kt. As noted in the previous advisory, the cyclone is expected to move around the southern and southwestern periphery of the sprawling Bermuda-Azores ridge for the next 5 days, resulting in a general west motion for 24-36 h, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest and, by 96-120 h, a turn toward the northwest. After 36 h, there is some spread in the track guidance, with the GFS generally on the right side of the guidance envelope and the UKMET on the left side, a spread often seen for westward-moving cyclones south of the Bermuda-Azores high. Due to a more westerly initial position, the guidance has shifted a little more to the west, and the new forecast track is again shifted to the west of the previous track. The new forecast lies a little to the south of the various consensus models. Conditions appear favorable for steady to rapid strengthening during the next 48-60 h due to light shear, a moist environment, and sea surface temperatures of 27-28C along the forecast track. The new intensity forecast calls for Larry to become a hurricane in about 24 h and a major hurricane near 60 h. After that time, the global models suggest the possibility of dry air entrainment, and by 120 h there is likely to be moderate westerly shear over the cyclone. Based on this forecast environment and the guidance trends, the intensity forecast calls for little change in strength from 72-120 h. The new intensity forecast lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 12.3N 27.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 12.4N 30.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 12.7N 33.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 13.2N 36.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 13.9N 39.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 15.0N 41.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 16.2N 44.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 19.0N 49.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 22.0N 52.5W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm Larry (AT2/AL122021)
2021-09-01 16:49:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LARRY STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES QUICKLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 2:00 PM CVT Wed Sep 1 the center of Larry was located near 12.3, -27.6 with movement W at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Larry Public Advisory Number 4
2021-09-01 16:49:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM CVT Wed Sep 01 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 011449 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Larry Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 200 PM CVT Wed Sep 01 2021 ...LARRY STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES QUICKLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 200 PM CVT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.3N 27.6W ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM CVT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Larry was located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 27.6 West. Larry is moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general motion should continue through Thursday. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed is expected Thursday night and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are now near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Larry is expected to become a hurricane on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM CVT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2021-09-01 16:49:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 011449 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 1500 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Larry Forecast Advisory Number 4
2021-09-01 16:49:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 011448 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 1500 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 27.6W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 27.6W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 26.7W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 12.4N 30.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 12.7N 33.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 13.2N 36.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 13.9N 39.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 15.0N 41.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.2N 44.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 19.0N 49.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 22.0N 52.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 27.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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