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Tropical Storm Olaf Graphics
2021-09-08 16:48:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 08 Sep 2021 14:48:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 08 Sep 2021 14:48:33 GMT
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Tropical Storm Olaf Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-09-08 16:40:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 081440 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Olaf Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 The depression has strengthened into Tropical Storm Olaf this morning. A well-defined curved band now wraps over 50 percent around the center of the cyclone, with cloud tops to -80 degrees C. The initial intensity has been raised to 35 kt for this advisory based on the latest TAFB Dvorak intensity estimate and the UW-CIMSS ADT. Olaf is forecast to remain over warm waters and in a moist environment for the next 36 hours or so. The only inhibiting factor to strengthening in the short term could be a slight increase in vertical wind shear beginning tonight. In a couple of days, the cyclone is forecast to begin moving over cooler waters and into a drier, much more stable atmospheric environment that favors rapid weakening. These unfavorable conditions should cause Olaf to degenerate into a remnant low this weekend. The latest NHC intensity forecast was decreased only slightly from the previous one, and is in good agreement with the IVCN intensity consensus. Although the NHC forecast no longer explicitly shows Olaf becoming a hurricane, this could still occur Thursday or Thursday night. The storm is now moving northwestward at 6 kt, to the southwest of a mid-level ridge building over northern Mexico. This northwestward motion should continue for a couple of days with a gradual increase in forward speed. By Friday night, Olaf is expected to turn west-northwestward as it weakens, and by Saturday a westward motion is forecast as the cyclone becomes shallow and steered by the surrounding low-level flow. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and lies near the various multi-model consensus tracks. It should be noted that the model solutions that depict a stronger cyclone favor a track slightly more to the north than the NHC forecast, closer to the southern Baja peninsula, while the weaker model solutions lie to the south of the NHC forecast track. Key Messages: 1. Olaf is forecast to strengthen to near hurricane intensity while it passes to the southwest of southern portions of Baja California Sur Thursday and Friday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in these areas. Interests there should continue to monitor the progress of Olaf. 2. Heavy rains associated with Olaf are possible across southern portions of Baja California Sur Thursday through Friday. This will pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 18.9N 107.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 19.6N 108.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 20.6N 109.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 21.7N 110.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 22.9N 112.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 11/0000Z 23.5N 113.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 23.8N 115.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 23.7N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1200Z 23.0N 120.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Olaf Forecast Advisory Number 4
2021-09-08 16:39:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 081439 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 1500 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM LOS BARRILES TO SANTA FE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 107.5W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 107.5W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 107.3W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.6N 108.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 20.6N 109.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.7N 110.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 22.9N 112.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 23.5N 113.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 23.8N 115.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 23.7N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 23.0N 120.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 107.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 08/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Summary for Tropical Storm Olaf (EP5/EP152021)
2021-09-08 16:39:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM OLAF... As of 9:00 AM MDT Wed Sep 8 the center of Olaf was located near 18.9, -107.5 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Olaf Public Advisory Number 4
2021-09-08 16:39:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 081439 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Olaf Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM OLAF... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 107.5W ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Santa Fe A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 107.5 West. Olaf is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general motion along with an increase in forward speed are expected through Friday. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by Friday night, followed by a turn toward the west on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will move just to the southwest of southern Baja California Sur on Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Olaf could be near hurricane strength by late Thursday. The storm is expected to begin weakening on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Baja California Sur by late Thursday or Thursday night. RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches across the southern portions of Baja California Sur Thursday through Friday. This rainfall may trigger flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Olaf is expected to generate swells that will affect portions of the coasts of Baja California Sur and Sinaloa by Thursday, spreading northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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