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Tropical Storm Cristobal Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-06-07 04:51:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sun, 07 Jun 2020 02:51:58 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-06-07 04:51:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sun, 07 Jun 2020 02:51:58 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Graphics
2020-06-07 04:46:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 07 Jun 2020 02:46:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 07 Jun 2020 02:46:23 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 22
2020-06-07 04:41:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020 059 WTNT43 KNHC 070241 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020 Cristobal has generally changed little during the past several hours. The storm continues to exhibit more of a subtropical appearance in satellite images with a broad wind field and a limited amount of deep convection near the center. The most intense convection has been in a squall line that is well east of the center near or over portions of the Florida peninsula. Data from both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters support holding the initial wind speed at 45 kt for this advisory. The center of Cristobal recently passed very near NOAA buoy 42001 in the central Gulf of Mexico, which was helpful in assessing the storm's minimum pressure. Cristobal is moving northward at about 10 kt between a deep-layer ridge to its east and a mid- to upper-level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico. This general motion should continue for about another day, taking the center of the storm across the Louisiana coast by Sunday night. After the storm makes landfall, a slight turn to the northwest is expected on Monday in response to a mid-level ridge shifting eastward across the southeast U.S. The track models are in very good agreement and only small changes were made to the previous NHC forecast. Cristobal has about another 18-24 hours over water in which it could strengthen. However, given its broad structure, lack of deep convection near the center, and dry air that is wrapping into the west and south sides of the circulation, only a little strengthening is predicted. After the storm makes landfall, steady weakening is forecast and the cyclone should weaken to a tropical depression by late Monday. Cristobal is a broad and asymmetric storm. Therefore, one should not focus on the exact forecast track, as the associated winds, storm surge, and rainfall will extend well away the center. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for those areas. Life-threatening storm surge remains possible in other portions of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Tropical storm force winds are expected to begin overnight along the northern Gulf coast from central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle, including metropolitan New Orleans, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for this area. These winds will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobals center. 3. Heavy rainfall will continue from central to north Florida overnight, spreading from east to west across the eastern and central Gulf coast from the Florida Panhandle into Louisiana on Sunday. This heavy rain will move into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday and across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains into Tuesday. Significant flooding will be possible on smaller rivers, especially where heavier rainfall occurs over portions of the Gulf coast through the Mississippi River Valley. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 26.2N 90.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 27.6N 90.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 29.5N 90.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 08/1200Z 31.8N 91.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 09/0000Z 34.5N 92.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 09/1200Z 38.3N 92.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 10/0000Z 43.0N 91.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 11/0000Z 50.5N 86.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2020-06-07 04:41:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUN 07 2020 076 FONT13 KNHC 070241 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 0300 UTC SUN JUN 07 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PANAMA CITY FL 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 1 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PENSACOLA FL 34 1 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 290N 870W 34 22 4(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) MOBILE AL 34 2 14(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) GULFPORT MS 34 8 29(37) 2(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) STENNIS MS 34 10 46(56) 4(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) STENNIS MS 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 67 22(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) BURAS LA 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BURAS LA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 890W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 890W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSON MS 34 X 8( 8) 9(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 21 57(78) 4(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 910W 34 94 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) GFMX 280N 910W 50 3 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BATON ROUGE LA 34 3 49(52) 12(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MORGAN CITY LA 34 21 53(74) 3(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 7( 7) 13(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) LAFAYETTE LA 34 2 26(28) 6(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) NEW IBERIA LA 34 4 32(36) 5(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 10 2(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FORT POLK LA 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAMERON LA 34 3 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) JASPER TX 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GALVESTON TX 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA NAS 34 13 6(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) KEESLER AB 34 22 19(41) 2(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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