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Tropical Storm Cristobal Graphics
2020-06-06 22:47:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 06 Jun 2020 20:47:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 06 Jun 2020 20:47:23 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 21
2020-06-06 22:46:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 062046 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020 Cristobal continues to lack the appearance and structure of a typical tropical cyclone. In fact, the large radius of maximum wind and convective bands well removed from the center are more characteristic of a subtropical cyclone. Based on earlier Air Force Hurricane Hunter observations, the maximum winds are about 45 kt. The central pressure has held steady during the last couple of fixes of the aircraft mission, suggesting no significant strengthening since this morning. Since the system is not well organized and is likely to continue to ingest some more dry air, only a little more strengthening is expected until landfall. The official intensity forecast is unchanged and remains close to the model consensus. The cyclone remains on track and is moving northward, or 360/10 kt. The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged. The system should continue northward between two mid-level anticyclones until it nears the northern Gulf coast. After landfall, a slight building of a ridge to the northeast should induce a turn toward the north-northwest. In 3-4 days, the post-tropical cyclone should accelerate north-northeastward ahead of a mid-tropospheric trough. Thereafter, the global models suggest that the system should merge with an extratropical cyclone near the Great Lakes. The official track forecast is in good agreement with the dynamical model consensus and is also close to the latest GFS solution. Cristobal is likely to remain a broad and asymmetric storm when it makes landfall. Therefore, one should not focus on the exact forecast track, as the associated winds, storm surge, and rainfall will extend well away the center. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for those areas. Life-threatening storm surge remains possible in other portions of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Tropical storm force winds are expected by late tonight along the northern Gulf Coast from central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle, including metropolitan New Orleans, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for this area. These winds will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobals center. 3. Heavy rainfall will continue across west and north Florida today, spreading from east to west across the eastern and central Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle into Louisiana today into Sunday. This heavy rain will move into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday. Significant flooding will be possible on smaller streams, especially where heavier rainfall occurs over portions of the Gulf Coast and Lower Mississippi Valley. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 25.2N 90.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 26.7N 90.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 28.5N 90.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 30.6N 91.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 08/1800Z 33.0N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 09/0600Z 36.0N 92.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 09/1800Z 40.5N 91.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 10/1800Z 49.0N 88.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/1800Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2020-06-06 22:46:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUN 06 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 062046 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 2100 UTC SAT JUN 06 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT APALACHICOLA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GFMX 290N 870W 34 12 10(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) MOBILE AL 34 1 8( 9) 15(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) GULFPORT MS 34 1 22(23) 22(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) STENNIS MS 34 1 32(33) 26(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) BURAS LA 34 9 63(72) 8(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) BURAS LA 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 34 72 15(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSON MS 34 X 2( 2) 23(25) 7(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 2 47(49) 28(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 910W 34 68 21(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BATON ROUGE LA 34 1 20(21) 38(59) 2(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MORGAN CITY LA 34 2 43(45) 26(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 20(21) 5(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 9( 9) 28(37) 2(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) NEW IBERIA LA 34 1 15(16) 27(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) GFMX 280N 930W 34 6 7(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FORT POLK LA 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) CAMERON LA 34 1 6( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) JASPER TX 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KOUNTZE TX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GALVESTON TX 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA NAS 34 2 13(15) 4(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) KEESLER AB 34 5 25(30) 14(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm Cristobal (AT3/AL032020)
2020-06-06 22:45:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 the center of Cristobal was located near 25.2, -90.2 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Public Advisory Number 21
2020-06-06 22:45:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020 014 WTNT33 KNHC 062045 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020 ...WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.2N 90.2W ABOUT 280 MI...445 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi * Lake Borgne A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Florida line * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 90.2 West. Cristobal is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the north-northwest. On the forecast track, the center of Cristobal will move northward over the central Gulf of Mexico today and tonight, and will be near the northern Gulf of Mexico coast on Sunday. Cristobal's center is then forecast to move inland across Louisiana late Sunday through Monday morning, and northward across Arkansas and Missouri Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast until landfall occurs on the northern Gulf coast. Weakening will begin once Cristobal moves inland late Sunday and Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne...3-5 ft Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...2-4 ft Ocean Springs MS to Marco Island FL including Mobile Bay, Pensacola Bay, and Tampa Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds and will likely extend along the coast well to the east of the center. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area along the northern Gulf Coast beginning late tonight or Sunday morning. RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the eastern and central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley, with isolated amounts to 12 inches. Isolated significant river flooding is possible along the central Gulf Coast. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This rainfall may lead to flash flooding and widespread flooding on smaller streams across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes will be possible this afternoon and evening across west central Florida, and early Sunday morning along the north central and northeast Gulf coast. SURF: Swells generated by Cristobal will affect portions of the northern and eastern Gulf coast during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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