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Tropical Storm Cristobal Public Advisory Number 19
2020-06-06 10:37:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 060837 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020 ...CRISTOBAL CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 90.2W ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi * Lake Borgne A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Indian Pass to Arepika Florida * East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for * East of Morgan City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Florida line * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Intracoastal City Louisiana to Morgan City A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 90.2 West. Cristobal is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Cristobal will move northward over the central Gulf of Mexico today, and will be near the northern Gulf of Mexico coast on Sunday. Cristobal's center is then forecast to move inland across Louisiana late Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast until landfall occurs on the northern Gulf coast. Weakening will begin once Cristobal moves inland late Sunday and Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km) from the center. NOAA buoy 42001, located in the central Gulf of Mexico, has again recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 45 mph (76 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne...3-5 ft Ocean Springs MS to Indian Pass FL including Mobile Bay and Pensacola Bay...1-3 ft Indian Pass FL to Aripeka FL...2-4 ft Aripeka FL to Marco Island FL including Tampa Bay...1-3 ft Morgan City LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds and will likely extend along the coast well to the east of the center. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area along the northern Gulf Coast beginning late tonight or Sunday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on Sunday. RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Through Wednesday morning, for portions of the eastern and central Gulf Coast and the lower Mississippi Valley, rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches, are forecast. Isolated significant river flooding is possible along the central Gulf Coast. Farther north across the Mid-Mississippi Valley, rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected. This degree of rainfall is expected to lead to flash flooding and widespread flooding on smaller order streams are possible across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals of 25 inches. Considering the heavy rain that has already fallen, any additional rainfall would continue the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Cristobal will affect portions of the northern and eastern Gulf coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur on Sunday across southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwest Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2020-06-06 10:37:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUN 06 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 060837 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 0900 UTC SAT JUN 06 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT APALACHICOLA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WHITING FLD FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) GFMX 290N 870W 34 4 13(17) 8(25) 2(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) MOBILE AL 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 12(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) GULFPORT MS 34 X 3( 3) 25(28) 17(45) 2(47) X(47) X(47) STENNIS MS 34 X 3( 3) 32(35) 21(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BURAS LA 34 1 15(16) 46(62) 8(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 890W 34 24 49(73) 11(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) 6(32) X(32) X(32) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 5( 5) 42(47) 16(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 910W 34 16 53(69) 11(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 2( 2) 20(22) 28(50) 3(53) X(53) X(53) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 5( 5) 34(39) 16(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 5(29) X(29) X(29) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 23(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 21(37) 2(39) X(39) X(39) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 34 2 9(11) 6(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) CAMERON LA 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 8(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GALVESTON TX 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X 7( 7) 13(20) 3(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) KEESLER AB 34 X 10(10) 28(38) 10(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) KEESLER AB 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Advisory Number 19
2020-06-06 10:36:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUN 06 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 060836 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 0900 UTC SAT JUN 06 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI * LAKE BORGNE A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INDIAN PASS TO AREPIKA FLORIDA * EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR * EAST OF MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY FLORIDA LINE * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO MORGAN CITY A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 90.2W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......210NE 180SE 0SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 360SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 90.2W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 90.2W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 25.0N 90.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...240NE 180SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 26.8N 90.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...240NE 150SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 28.8N 90.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...200NE 140SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 30.6N 91.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 33.2N 92.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 36.4N 92.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 45.0N 89.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 52.5N 83.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 90.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 06/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Graphics
2020-06-06 07:35:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 06 Jun 2020 05:35:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 06 Jun 2020 03:24:54 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Cristobal (AT3/AL032020)
2020-06-06 07:35:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CRISTOBAL MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... As of 1:00 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 the center of Cristobal was located near 23.3, -90.1 with movement N at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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