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Tropical Storm Cristobal Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-06-06 04:45:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sat, 06 Jun 2020 02:45:03 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Graphics
2020-06-06 04:41:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 06 Jun 2020 02:41:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 06 Jun 2020 03:24:54 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 18
2020-06-06 04:39:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020 025 WTNT43 KNHC 060239 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020 The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Cristobal this evening and they have found that the storm is a little stronger. The pressure has dropped to 998 mb and a combination of flight-level, SFMR, and dropsonde data support a wind speed of about 40 kt. Cristobal continues to have a large and asymmetric appearance with most of the showers and thunderstorms and strong winds to the north and east of the center. The storm is moving northward at a slightly faster pace, about 12 kt. A south to north steering flow between a deep-layer ridge over the western Atlantic and a mid- to upper-level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico should cause Cristobal to continue moving generally northward for the next couple of days. This motion should take the center of the storm across the Louisiana coast by Sunday night. Around the landfall time, a slight turn to the northwest is expected as a mid-level ridge moves across the central and eastern U.S. Overall, the models are in fairly good agreement and only small changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast. This prediction lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Cristobal will likely continue to slowly strengthen until it makes landfall along the northern Gulf coast in a couple of days. However, the broad structure of the cyclone, dry air on the west side of the system, and moderate wind shear should prevent a significant amount of intensification. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and is close to the various consensus models. Cristobal is likely to remain a broad and asymmetric storm when it makes landfall. Therefore, users are urged to not focus on the exact forecast path as the associated winds, storm surge, and rainfall will extend well to the east of the center. Key Messages: 1. Damaging and deadly flooding was already occurring in portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts for another day or so. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for more information. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for those areas. Life-threatening storm surge remains possible along the Florida Big Bend and in other portions of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 3. Tropical storm force winds are expected by late Saturday night along the northern Gulf Coast from southeastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle, including metropolitan New Orleans, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for this area. These winds will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobals center. 4. Heavy rainfall will spread into portions of the Gulf Coast, from east Texas to Florida this weekend into early next week, with areas of flash flooding. Significant flooding will be possible on smaller tributaries, especially where heavier rainfall occurs over portions of Louisiana and Mississippi. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 22.7N 90.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 24.1N 90.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 25.9N 90.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 27.7N 90.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 29.5N 90.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 08/1200Z 31.7N 91.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 09/0000Z 34.4N 92.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 10/0000Z 42.0N 90.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2020-06-06 04:37:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUN 06 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 060237 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 0300 UTC SAT JUN 06 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) GFMX 290N 870W 34 1 9(10) 10(20) 6(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) MOBILE AL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 20(24) 4(28) X(28) X(28) GULFPORT MS 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 30(39) 5(44) X(44) X(44) STENNIS MS 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 36(47) 5(52) X(52) X(52) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BURAS LA 34 X 4( 4) 27(31) 28(59) 2(61) X(61) X(61) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 890W 34 8 37(45) 28(73) 5(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 10(26) X(26) X(26) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 38(52) 6(58) X(58) X(58) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 910W 34 5 33(38) 27(65) 6(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 35(40) 9(49) 1(50) X(50) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 34(44) 6(50) 1(51) X(51) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 9(24) X(24) X(24) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 24(27) 7(34) X(34) X(34) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 25(29) 7(36) X(36) X(36) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 5( 6) 5(11) 4(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14) CAMERON LA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 10(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GALVESTON TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MERIDA MX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COZUMEL MX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X 3( 3) 9(12) 10(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) KEESLER AB 34 X 5( 5) 15(20) 25(45) 2(47) X(47) X(47) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm Cristobal (AT3/AL032020)
2020-06-06 04:36:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND CRISTOBAL A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 10:00 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 the center of Cristobal was located near 22.7, -90.1 with movement N at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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