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Tropical Storm Arthur Public Advisory Number 4A
2020-05-17 19:47:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Sun May 17 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 171747 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Arthur Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020 200 PM EDT Sun May 17 2020 ...ARTHUR CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.0N 77.3W ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Surf City to Duck NC * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was located near latitude 31.0 North, longitude 77.3 West. Arthur is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next 24 to 48 hours. On the forecast track, Arthur will remain well offshore of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina today and tonight, and then move near or just east of the coast of North Carolina on Monday. Arthur is forecast to turn away from the east coast of the United States Monday night and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours. Arthur is likely to lose tropical characteristics on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on Monday. RAINFALL: Arthur is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over coastal North Carolina tonight and Monday, with locally higher amounts. SURF: Swells generated by Arthur are affecting portions of the southeast U.S. coast and are expected to spread northward along the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast during the next day or two. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Arthur Graphics
2020-05-17 16:46:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 May 2020 14:46:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 May 2020 14:46:02 GMT
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Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-05-17 16:45:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun May 17 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 171445 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Arthur Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020 1100 AM EDT Sun May 17 2020 Visible satellite imagery reveals a couple of convective bands over the eastern semicircle of the tropical storm, but convection is sparse over the western portion of the circulation. The latest reports from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft show peak 925-mb flight-level winds of 48 kt, and believable SFMR winds of 35-40 kt. On this basis, the initial wind speed has been increased to 40 kt. The plane has reported a minimum pressure of 1002-1003 mb, which is down a few millibars from the previous flight. Arthur has a little more than 24 hours in which to gradually strengthen. The storm will be traversing the relatively warm waters of the Gulf stream, and the vertical shear is forecast to remain low through early Monday. After that time, increasing shear and cooler sea surface temperatures should put a halt to the tropical cyclone strengthening processes. Baroclinic forcing is likely to help the post-tropical cyclone maintain its strengthen through extratropical transition. Later in the forecast period, the global model guidance shows weakening as the frontal gradients decrease. The storm is moving north-northeastward or 015/8 kt. Arthur is expected to begin moving a little faster later today and tonight as a mid-level trough approaches the eastern United States. Later in the forecast period, the cyclone should turn eastward within the westerly steering flow. Although the dynamical models are in agreement on the overall scenario, there remains some spread as to how close the center of Arthur will track to the North Carolina Outer Bands. The GFS and HWRF remain along the western side of the guidance while the ECMWF and UKMET bracket the eastern side. The NHC track lies near the model consensus and little change was required to the previous track through 36-48 hours. After that time, the track guidance spread increases with the ECMWF showing a much faster east-southeastward motion than the GFS. The NHC forecast remains near the consensus after 48 hours, but there is less confidence in that portion of the track prediction. Key Messages: 1. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of the North Carolina coast. Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains are expected there on Monday. 2. Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected to spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast to the mid-Atlantic states during the next couple of days. See products from your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 30.5N 77.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 32.0N 76.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 34.3N 75.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 36.4N 73.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 37.3N 70.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 20/0000Z 37.1N 68.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 20/1200Z 36.5N 66.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 21/1200Z 35.5N 64.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm Arthur (AT1/AL012020)
2020-05-17 16:44:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ARTHUR A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 11:00 AM EDT Sun May 17 the center of Arthur was located near 30.5, -77.4 with movement NNE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Arthur Public Advisory Number 4
2020-05-17 16:44:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun May 17 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 171444 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Arthur Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020 1100 AM EDT Sun May 17 2020 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ARTHUR A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.5N 77.4W ABOUT 345 MI...550 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Surf City to Duck NC * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was located near latitude 30.5 North, longitude 77.4 West. Arthur is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next 24 to 48 hours. On the forecast track, Arthur will remain well offshore the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina today, and then move near or just east of the coast of North Carolina on Monday. Arthur is forecast to turn away from the U.S. East Coast on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours. Arthur is likely to lose tropical characteristics on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on Monday. RAINFALL: Arthur is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over coastal North Carolina tonight and Monday, with locally higher amounts. SURF: Swells generated by Arthur are affecting portions of the southeast U.S. coast and are expected to spread northward along the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast during the next day or two. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions across much of the U.S. southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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