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Tropical Storm Arthur Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2020-05-17 22:31:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN MAY 17 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 172031 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020 2100 UTC SUN MAY 17 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 7 38(45) 2(47) X(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CHERRY PT NC 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 12 14(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) MOREHEAD CITY 34 10 9(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) BALD HEAD ISL 34 5 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MYRTLE BEACH 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 9(20) X(20) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Arthur (AT1/AL012020)
2020-05-17 22:31:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ARTHUR'S OUTER RAINBANDS CREEPING TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sun May 17 the center of Arthur was located near 31.5, -77.2 with movement NNE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Arthur Public Advisory Number 5
2020-05-17 22:31:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun May 17 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 172031 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Arthur Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020 500 PM EDT Sun May 17 2020 ...ARTHUR'S OUTER RAINBANDS CREEPING TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.5N 77.2W ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Surf City to Duck NC * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 77.2 West. Arthur is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next 24 to 36 hours. A turn toward the east is forecast to occur on Tuesday. On the forecast track, Arthur will remain well offshore of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina tonight, and then move near or just east of the coast of North Carolina on Monday. Arthur is forecast to turn away from the east coast of the United States Monday night and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. Arthur is likely to lose tropical characteristics on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on Monday. RAINFALL: Arthur is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over coastal North Carolina tonight and Monday, with locally higher amounts. SURF: Swells generated by Arthur are affecting portions of the southeast U.S. coast and are expected to spread northward along the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast during the next day or two. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Arthur Graphics
2020-05-17 19:50:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 May 2020 17:50:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 May 2020 15:24:45 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Arthur (AT1/AL012020)
2020-05-17 19:47:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ARTHUR CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... As of 2:00 PM EDT Sun May 17 the center of Arthur was located near 31.0, -77.3 with movement NNE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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