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Tropical Storm Arthur Graphics
2020-05-17 10:52:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 May 2020 08:52:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 May 2020 08:52:59 GMT
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Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-05-17 10:48:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun May 17 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 170848 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Arthur Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020 500 AM EDT Sun May 17 2020 Arthur has not changed much in organization overnight. The storm features a large curved convective band over the eastern semicircle of the circulation, and the low-level center appears to be exposed to the west of that band. The intensity is held at 35 kt in agreement with a subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB and ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the cyclone around 12Z which should provide a good estimate of Arthur's intensity. Although Arthur will be crossing back over the Gulf Stream tonight and Monday, vertical shear is forecast to steadily increase during that time. With these counteracting influences on intensity change, only slight strengthening is anticipated during the next 24-36 hours. The official forecast is close to the model consensus and is similar to the previous one. In 2-3 days, some strengthening due to baroclinic processes is possible, since the global models depict extratropical transition around that time. Later in the forecast period, the dynamical guidance shows weakening as the frontal gradients decrease. The storm has been moving a little to the left of the previous estimates and the motion is now around 015/8 kt. An approaching mid-level trough over the eastern U.S. should cause the cyclone to accelerate northeastward during the next 48 hours or so. Later in the forecast period, Arthur or its post-tropical remnants should turn eastward within a general westerly flow field. There has been a bit of a westward shift in much of the track guidance for the next 1-2 days, which has necessitated a leftward adjustment of the official forecast track. Since the new NHC forecast is now closer to the North Carolina Outer Banks, the Tropical Storm Watch has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning for that area. Key Messages: 1. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for a portion of the North Carolina coast. Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains are expected there on Monday. 2. Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected to spread northward from Florida to the mid-Atlantic states during the next few days. See products from your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 30.0N 77.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 31.2N 77.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 33.2N 76.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 35.5N 74.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 36.9N 72.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 19/1800Z 37.3N 69.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 20/0600Z 37.0N 67.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 21/0600Z 36.0N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Arthur Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-05-17 10:48:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN MAY 17 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 170847 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020 0900 UTC SUN MAY 17 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK VA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CAPE HATTERAS 34 1 16(17) 37(54) 2(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) NEW RIVER NC 34 1 26(27) 18(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) NEW RIVER NC 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 34 1 24(25) 12(37) X(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 34 2 16(18) 1(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) MYRTLE BEACH 34 1 5( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm Arthur (AT1/AL012020)
2020-05-17 10:47:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS... As of 5:00 AM EDT Sun May 17 the center of Arthur was located near 30.0, -77.6 with movement NNE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-05-17 10:47:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN MAY 17 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 170847 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020 0900 UTC SUN MAY 17 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SURF CITY TO DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBERMARLE SOUNDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SURF CITY TO DUCK NC * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 77.6W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 75SE 0SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 77.6W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 77.7W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 31.2N 77.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 33.2N 76.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 35.5N 74.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 36.9N 72.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 37.3N 69.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 37.0N 67.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 36.0N 66.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.0N 77.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 17/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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