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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 21
2020-09-12 04:49:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 120249 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0300 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 54.8W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......180NE 80SE 60SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 120SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 54.8W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 54.3W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 27.1N 56.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 80SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 28.5N 58.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 80SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 29.6N 61.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 30.7N 63.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 32.1N 65.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 33.8N 65.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 37.0N 60.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 40.0N 54.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N 54.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 12/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Rene Graphics
2020-09-12 04:42:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 12 Sep 2020 02:42:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 12 Sep 2020 02:42:51 GMT
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Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Discussion Number 20
2020-09-12 04:41:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 120241 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 Deep convection has persisted near the center of Rene since this afternoon and a couple of earlier microwave overpasses suggest that there has been an increase in banding over the southwestern portion of the circulation. Despite what appears to be an increase in organization, recent ASCAT data indicated that this has not translated into an increase in intensity. The scatterometer data still supports an initial wind speed of 35 kt. Environmental conditions are forecast to generally be conducive for some strengthening over the next 12-24 hours, however with Rene continuing to struggle to intensify the NHC wind speed prediction has again been reduced during the that time. By 36-48 hours, Rene is expected to move beneath an area of strong upper-level west-northwesterly flow, and this increase in shear is expected to cause weakening. The ECMWF and GFS models significantly weaken Rene after 72 hours, with the ECMWF showing dissipation before the end of the forecast period. For now, the official forecast calls for Rene to weaken to a tropical depression by day 4, but it is possible that the system will degenerate into a trough of low pressure before day 5. Rene is moving west-northwestward or 295/12 kt. The cyclone should turn toward the northwest as it moves around the western portion of a mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic. In a couple of days, a mid-level high is predicted to build to the northwest of Rene, which should cause the cyclone to slow down and turn westward, and then west-southwestward later in the forecast period. The track guidance is in fairly good agreement and the various consensus aids remained close to the previous official forecast. Therefore, the new NHC forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 21.4N 42.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 22.4N 44.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 24.1N 45.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 25.7N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 26.8N 47.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 14/1200Z 27.1N 47.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 26.8N 48.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 25.9N 50.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 17/0000Z 24.8N 54.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm Rene (AT3/AL182020)
2020-09-12 04:41:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RENE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 11 the center of Rene was located near 21.4, -42.4 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Rene Public Advisory Number 20
2020-09-12 04:41:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 120241 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rene Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 ...RENE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 42.4W ABOUT 1260 MI...2025 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1360 MI...2190 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 42.4 West. Rene is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the northwest followed by a slower north-northwest motion is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, but a weakening trend will likely begin by late Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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