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Tropical Storm Paulette Public Advisory Number 23
2020-09-12 16:56:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 121456 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... ...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON BERMUDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.5N 57.2W ABOUT 565 MI...905 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Hurricane Warning for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 57.2 West. Paulette is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A northwest or west-northwest motion is expected through late Sunday. A turn toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on Monday, followed by a northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette will move near or over Bermuda Monday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to become a hurricane later today or tonight. Paulette is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it is near Bermuda Sunday night and Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by Sunday night or early Monday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by late Sunday evening, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAIN: Paulette may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda Sunday through Monday, with rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches likely. SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda and will continue to spread westward to the east coast of the United States over the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 23
2020-09-12 16:56:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 121456 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 1500 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 57.2W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......180NE 80SE 60SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 150SE 270SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 57.2W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 56.6W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 28.5N 59.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 80SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 29.5N 61.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 30.8N 63.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 32.4N 64.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 34.2N 64.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 35.8N 61.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 160SE 140SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 39.0N 54.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 42.0N 47.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N 57.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 12/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Paulette Graphics
2020-09-12 13:54:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 12 Sep 2020 11:54:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 12 Sep 2020 09:25:27 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Paulette (AT2/AL172020)
2020-09-12 13:54:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...PAULETTE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...FORECAST TO BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO BERMUDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT... As of 8:00 AM AST Sat Sep 12 the center of Paulette was located near 27.2, -56.8 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Paulette Public Advisory Number 22A
2020-09-12 13:54:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 121154 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Paulette Intermediate Advisory Number 22A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 800 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 ...PAULETTE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...FORECAST TO BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO BERMUDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.2N 56.8W ABOUT 590 MI...955 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 56.8 West. Paulette is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwestward or northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected through the weekend, followed by a turn toward the northwest and north-northwest on Monday and Monday evening. The center of Paulette is forecast to move near Bermuda Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is anticipated, and Paulette is forecast to become a hurricane later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin to affect Bermuda and the nearby waters by Sunday night. Hurricane conditions could begin in that area Sunday night or early Monday. RAIN: Paulette may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through Monday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches possible. SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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