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Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-09-08 22:33:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 08 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 082033 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 2100 UTC TUE SEP 08 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ALL OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS. THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 27.9W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 27.9W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 27.2W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 17.2N 29.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 18.0N 32.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.9N 34.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.9N 37.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 21.3N 38.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.2N 40.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 27.7N 42.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 30.5N 40.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 27.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Rene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2020-09-08 22:33:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 08 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 082033 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM RENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 2100 UTC TUE SEP 08 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Paulette Graphics
2020-09-08 22:31:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 08 Sep 2020 20:31:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 08 Sep 2020 21:24:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-09-08 22:30:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 08 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 082030 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 PM AST Tue Sep 08 2020 Shear has started to take a toll on Paulette's structure. Convection is again primarily limited to the northeast quadrant with little signs of banding. It is certainly possible that convection will expand again tonight when Paulette is farther removed from the diurnal convective minimum, but for the moment it does not look like further intensification is imminent. Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are still T-3.5/55 kt, and that is the basis for the intensity estimate. If convection does increase tonight, Paulette will have a brief window for further strengthening before an expected increase in southerly shear on Wednesday. At a minimum, Paulette's intensity should then level off, and it will probably begin to weaken. Later this week or over the weekend Paulette will have an opportunity to restrengthen, depending on its interaction with an upper-level low expected to be just west of the cyclone. The spread in the guidance at that point is very high ranging from near dissipation to a category 2 hurricane. The NHC intensity forecast is mostly unchanged for now, but Paulette could certainly be much stronger or weaker over the weekend than currently forecast. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning, and therefore little change to the track forecast itself. Paulette should gradually turn westward by late Wednesday and then back toward the northwest later this week as a ridge to its north builds and weakens over the next several days. The model spread is high, since there is still quite a bit of uncertainty in exactly how far west Paulette will make it before it turns northwestward. Confidence in the forecast beyond 72 h remains low. The NHC forecast track is based heavily on the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA). FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 18.7N 44.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 19.2N 45.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 19.9N 47.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 20.3N 49.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 20.5N 50.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 20.7N 52.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 21.4N 53.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 23.5N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 13/1800Z 26.5N 59.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Storm Paulette (AT2/AL172020)
2020-09-08 22:30:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...PAULETTE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 8 the center of Paulette was located near 18.7, -44.3 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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