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Summary for Tropical Storm Rene (AT3/AL182020)
2020-09-08 10:37:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RENE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS TODAY... As of 8:00 AM CVT Tue Sep 8 the center of Rene was located near 16.4, -24.9 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Rene Public Advisory Number 5
2020-09-08 10:37:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM CVT Tue Sep 08 2020 004 WTNT33 KNHC 080837 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rene Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 800 AM CVT Tue Sep 08 2020 ...RENE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM CVT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 24.9W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF SANTO ANTAO CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Verde Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM CVT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 24.9 West. Rene is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a motion toward the west to west-northwest is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Rene will pass over the central and western Cabo Verde Islands today, and then move away from the islands tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, followed by gradual strengthening tonight into Thursday, with Rene forecast to become a hurricane in a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Rene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml RAINFALL: Rene is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Tuesday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions occurring over the central portions of the Cabo Verde Islands will spread westward across the western portions of the Cabo Verde Islands today. SURF: Swells generated by Rene are expected to spread westward across the Cabo Verde Islands today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM CVT. Next complete advisory at 200 PM CVT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-09-08 10:37:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 08 2020 003 WTNT23 KNHC 080837 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 0900 UTC TUE SEP 08 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO VERDE ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 24.9W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 24.9W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 24.2W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 16.7N 26.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 17.1N 29.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.9N 32.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.8N 34.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.8N 37.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 21.0N 39.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 24.5N 42.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 28.6N 42.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 24.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 08/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Paulette Graphics
2020-09-08 10:36:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 08 Sep 2020 08:36:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 08 Sep 2020 08:36:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-09-08 10:35:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 08 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 080835 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 AM AST Tue Sep 08 2020 GOES-16 Proxy-VIS and enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery reveals that Paulette's cloud pattern has continued to improve during the past several hours. Specifically, the developing inner core is much more symmetric with new bursts of deep convection (-76C cloud tops) near the surface circulation center. Subsequently, subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates support an initial intensity of 45 kt. The global models and the statistical-dynamical intensity guidance indicate increasing southwesterly shear commencing later today. So, only modest strengthening is shown in the NHC foreast during next 24 hours. On Friday, the shear stiffens and becomes less diffluent as the cyclone approaches the high amplitude mid-Atlantic TUTT. Therefore, Gradual weakening is expected to occur at that time. Beyond day 3, there are some mixed signals, specifically in the GFS/FV3 and ECMWF SHIPS output. The GFS/FV3 continues to indicate strong southwesterly shear through day 5 further weakening Paulette to a depression around day 4. The ECMWF SHIPS, however, shows a more southerly and diffluent upper wind pattern supporting reintensification after day 4. The intensity forecast sides with that latter solution and also agrees with the HCCA intensity multi-model indicating the same intensity trend. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 325/5 kt. The rather weak synoptic steering pattern consists of a large mid- to upper-level low just west of the Canary Islands and ridging to the northwest of the cyclone. During the next couple of days, the large-scale models show the upper low filling and lifting northeastward, allowing the subtropical ridge to build in behind the departing upper low from the western Atlantic. This change in the pattern should cause Paulette to turn west-northwestward on Wednesday and continue moving in this general motion through early Saturday. Through the remaining portion of the period, the global models indicate a major shortwave trough moving off of the northeast coast of the U.S. and breaking down the western extent of the subtropical ridge/Bermuda high. This growing weakness in the ridge should cause Paulette to turn toward the northwest early Sunday. The official track forecast is a little bit slower and to the right of the previous forecast after day 3, and is close to the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 18.1N 42.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 18.6N 43.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 19.5N 45.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 20.2N 46.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 20.5N 48.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 10/1800Z 20.8N 50.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 21.3N 51.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 22.9N 54.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 13/0600Z 25.4N 57.8W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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