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Summary for Tropical Storm Paulette (AT2/AL172020)
2020-09-07 22:30:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...PAULETTE DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 7 the center of Paulette was located near 17.5, -42.4 with movement NW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Paulette Public Advisory Number 4
2020-09-07 22:30:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 07 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 072030 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 PM AST Mon Sep 07 2020 ...PAULETTE DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 42.4W ABOUT 1220 MI...1965 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1360 MI...2190 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 42.4 West. Paulette is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow motion toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected tonight. Paulette is then forecast to move a little faster and generally westward on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Modest strengthening is expected during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-09-07 22:30:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 849 WTNT22 KNHC 072030 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 2100 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 42.4W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 42.4W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 42.3W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.9N 42.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.8N 43.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.6N 45.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 70SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.3N 46.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 70SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 20.8N 48.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 70SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 21.1N 50.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 50SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 21.8N 53.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 24.0N 56.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 42.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Paulette Graphics
2020-09-07 16:41:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 07 Sep 2020 14:41:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 07 Sep 2020 15:24:40 GMT
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-09-07 16:39:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 07 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 071439 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 07 2020 Visible imagery and recent ASCAT data indicate that the circulation of Paulette is quite elongated from southwest to northeast. However, the ASCAT data indicated that winds up to tropical-storm-force were present, and this was corroborated by a 35 kt Dvorak-based intensity estimate from TAFB. Paulette is the 16th named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. It is also the earliest 16th named storm of any Atlantic season by 10 days. The previous record was Philippe, which formed on September 17, 2005. Although it is elongated, the tropical storm's structure seems to have improved over the past few hours, with convection increasing in both coverage and organization. Although moderate southerly shear and some dry environmental air appear to be limiting factors, most of the intensity guidance suggests that modest strengthening is likely for the next couple of days. Near the end of the week, the models indicate that Paulette's winds will plateau or possibly decrease. This appears to be the result of increasing southwesterly shear associated with a upper-level trough that is forecast to deepen over the central Atlantic on Thursday and Friday. The official intensity forecast remains very near the multi-model consensus. Paulette has moved very little during the past few hours, but a west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected to resume shortly. Fluctuations in the strength of a mid-level ridge over the western and central Atlantic will likely cause Paulette's exact speed and heading to fluctuate during the next several says, but the guidance agrees that it should generally head northwestward through the end of the week. It is likely that the stronger Paulette gets, the farther north it will move since the aforementioned upper-level trough will have a greater influence on its track. The NHC track forecast is based on a blend of the previous forecast and the latest multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 17.2N 42.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 17.4N 42.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 17.9N 43.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 18.7N 44.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 19.6N 46.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 20.3N 48.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 20.7N 50.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 21.0N 53.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 23.0N 56.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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