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Tropical Storm Hernan Public Advisory Number 5
2020-08-27 10:42:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020 762 WTPZ33 KNHC 270842 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hernan Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020 300 AM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020 ...HERNAN STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WHILE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD OFFSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 106.0W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hernan was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 106.0 West. Hernan is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue this morning. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by this afternoon, followed by a west-northwestward motion on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Hernan, along with the strongest winds and heaviest rains, is expected to remain just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so. A weakening trend is expected to begin by early Friday, and Hernan is forecast to become a remnant low Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center, mainly to the south and southwest of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Laura Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
2020-08-27 05:27:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Thu, 27 Aug 2020 03:27:07 GMT
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laura
Hurricane Laura Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
2020-08-27 05:17:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Thu, 27 Aug 2020 03:17:57 GMT
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Tropical Storm Iselle Graphics
2020-08-27 05:00:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 27 Aug 2020 03:00:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 27 Aug 2020 03:00:41 GMT
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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-08-27 04:58:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 26 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 270258 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 26 2020 Satellite imagery indicates that a convective burst has formed a little closer to the center of Iselle during the past few hours, although the circulation remains at least somewhat elongated. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are near 35 kt, so that remains the initial intensity. The imagery, as well as model analyses, show that Iselle continues to be undergoing strong easterly shear. Iselle is embedded in a large monsoon gyre, and the southwesterly flow on the south side of the gyre should be the main steering influence for the next 60 h or so. This should result in the cyclone continuing its current slow motion toward the northeast. After that time, the cyclone should separate from the gyre, allowing a mid-level ridge to the north and northeast of the system to become the dominant steering mechanism. This should cause Iselle to turn to the north, then northwest, then eventually to the west. The track guidance is in good agreement with the general scenario, although there is some spread on when and where there turns will occur. The new forecast track is close to the HCCA corrected consensus mode and has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast. Present indications are that the current strong shear will persist for several days, and after 72 h the forecast track takes the cyclone over cooler sea surface temperatures. Based on this, significant strengthening appears unlikely, although short-lived spin ups due to convective bursts are possible. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast in showing little change of strength for 72 h, followed by weakening to a depression and a remnant low. An alternative scenario is that the shear causes Iselle to weaken to a trough at any time during the next 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 16.2N 116.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 16.7N 115.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 17.3N 115.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 17.9N 114.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 18.6N 114.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 29/1200Z 19.4N 113.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 20.7N 113.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 31/0000Z 22.5N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0000Z 22.5N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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