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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-08-27 16:50:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 271450 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 1500 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 115.8W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 90SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 150SE 90SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 115.8W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 115.9W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.5N 115.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 70SE 80SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.2N 115.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.9N 114.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 50SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.9N 114.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.2N 114.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.2N 115.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 22.5N 116.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 22.3N 117.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 115.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Hernan Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-08-27 16:48:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 271448 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hernan Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020 900 AM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020 First light visible satellite imagery reveals that Hernan remains a sheared tropical cyclone with most of the deep convection confined to the western semicircle. Even though convection has waned a bit overnight, there appears to be a new cluster developing. Therefore the initial intensity is being held at 40 kt, based on the earlier morning ASCAT overpass. Hernan should at least maintain its current strength for the next 12-24 h as it remains over very warm waters while battling moderate easterly shear. This shear is not forecast to abate during the forecast period. And after 24 h, the cyclone is expected to begin moving over progressively cooler waters. The combination of these two factors should induce a weakening trend. By 60 h, simulated satellite imagery by global models suggest that the cyclone will become devoid of deep convection. After that time, the remnant low is expected to be absorbed within the broader circulation of Hernan to its west. The latest NHC intensity forecast is close to the IVCN/ICON intensity consensus. Hernan has turned to the north-northwest and is moving at about 4 kt. There is no change to the track forecast reasoning. Hernan is expected to remain caught within a large-scale, eastern North Pacific cyclonic gyre during the next few days, which will result in Hernan moving counter-clockwise around the eastern and northern periphery of the gyre. The cyclone will continue to parallel the coast of southwestern Mexico through this evening, followed by a northwestward then westward turn tonight and Friday. The westward motion should continue until the system becomes absorbed early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 19.1N 106.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 20.1N 107.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 21.2N 108.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 22.2N 110.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 22.8N 112.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 30/0000Z 22.5N 113.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Hernan Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-08-27 16:47:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 271447 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132020 1500 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Summary for Tropical Storm Hernan (EP3/EP132020)
2020-08-27 16:47:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HERNAN MOVING PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 9:00 AM MDT Thu Aug 27 the center of Hernan was located near 19.1, -106.2 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Hernan Public Advisory Number 6
2020-08-27 16:47:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 271447 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hernan Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020 900 AM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020 ...HERNAN MOVING PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 106.2W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hernan was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 106.2 West. Hernan is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn to the northwest along with an increase in forward speed is expected to occur by tonight. A turn to the west is forecast this weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Hernan, along with the strongest winds and heaviest rains, is expected to remain just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Iselle is expected to begin weakening on Friday, and the system is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Saturday and be absorbed by the circulation of Hernan to its west on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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