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Tropical Storm Hernan Public Advisory Number 7
2020-08-27 22:33:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 272033 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hernan Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020 300 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020 ...HERNAN WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 106.5W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hernan was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 106.5 West. Hernan is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), an increase in forward speed is expected to occur by tonight. A turn to the west-northwest then west is forecast to occur Friday and Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of Hernan, along with the strongest winds and heaviest rains, is expected to remain just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast over the next couple of days and Hernan is expected to degenerate into a remnant low late this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Iselle Graphics
2020-08-27 22:33:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 27 Aug 2020 20:33:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 27 Aug 2020 20:33:51 GMT
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Tropical Storm Hernan Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-08-27 22:33:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 551 WTPZ23 KNHC 272033 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132020 2100 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 106.5W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 90SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 210SE 150SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 106.5W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 106.2W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 20.7N 107.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 21.6N 109.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.3N 111.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 22.5N 113.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.6N 114.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 106.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Hernan Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2020-08-27 22:33:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 596 FOPZ13 KNHC 272033 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132020 2100 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-08-27 22:32:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 27 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 272032 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 27 2020 Since the previous advisory, a new burst of deep convection developed near the center of Iselle the persisted for much of the morning. It was not until recently that the easterly shear has begun to push the convection to the west of the center. The latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB as well as data from a recent ASCAT overpass all agree that the initial intensity has increased to 45 kt. Moderate-to-strong easterly to northeasterly vertical wind shear should prevent Iselle from further strengthening over the next couple of days. After that time, the shear is forecast to relax somewhat. However, by that time the cyclone will then be moving over SSTs of only 26 C and into a more stable atmospheric environment. This should cause the deep convection to gradually dissipate, and the cyclone is expected to weaken late this weekend into early next week before degenerating into a remnant low. The latest NHC intensity forecast is close to the LGEM guidance. Iselle continues moving northeastward at 4 kt, embedded in a large monsoon gyre. The steering flow is forecast to become more southeasterly this weekend inside the gyre, resulting in a gradual turn to the northwest. As the cyclone breaks north of the gyre and becomes shallow, a turn to the west is anticipated while the system becomes steered by a low- to mid- level ridge to its north. The latest NHC track forecast was nudged just a little to the right of the previous one due to a shift in the guidance, and lies in between the previous forecast and the various track consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 17.2N 115.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 17.8N 115.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 18.6N 114.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 19.6N 114.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 20.8N 114.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 30/0600Z 21.9N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 22.8N 115.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 31/1800Z 23.2N 116.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1800Z 23.1N 117.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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