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Hurricane Michael Forecast Discussion Number 13
2018-10-09 22:55:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018 000 WTNT44 KNHC 092055 TCDAT4 Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018 The eye of Michael became very distinct in both visible and infrared satellite pictures early this afternoon, but has been a little more cloud filled since that time. Very deep convection has continue to develop over the southeastern and eastern portion of the eyewall and rotate around the north and west sides. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 109 kt in the northeast eyewall as it exited the storm just prior to 1800 UTC, and another Air Force Hurricane Hunter very recently made its first pass through the eye and reported similar flight-level winds in the southeast quadrant, and a minimum pressure of 957 mb, down about 8 mb over the past few hours. Based on these observations and Dvorak satellite classifications of 115 kt and 102 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively, the initial intensity has been increased to 105 kt for this advisory. The environment ahead of Michael is expected to remain conducive for additional strengthening during the next 12 to 18 hours. There may be some increase in southwesterly shear as the hurricane nears the Gulf Coast, but it is not likely to result in a significant decrease in intensity before landfall. The global models continue to deepen the cyclone over the Gulf, increasing the confidence that some additional intensification will occur. The new NHC intensity forecast brings Michael up to 110 kt, and is in best agreement with the SHIPS and HCCA models. After landfall, significant weakening should occur while Michael moves over the southeastern United States, but the cyclone is predicted to re-strengthen over the western Atlantic due to baroclinic processes after it merges with a front and becomes extratropical on Friday. Michael is still moving north-northwestward to northward at about 10 kt. The hurricane should turn due northward this evening, then northeastward on Wednesday as a trough moves into the central United States. Michael should become embedded within the westerlies in 48 to 72 hours, and then accelerate northeastward to east- northeastward over the western and central-north Atlantic over the weekend. There is not much spread in the dynamical model guidance, and little change was required to the official forecast. Although the NHC forecast brings the center onshore Wednesday afternoon, conditions will deteriorate along the northeastern Gulf Coast tonight. Tropical storm watches and warnings have been expanded northward along the U.S. East Coast from northeastern Florida to North Carolina. Non-tropical watches, warnings, and advisories will be issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards north of Duck, North Carolina, as Michael is expected to be post-tropical when it affects those areas. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, where a storm surge warning is in effect. The worst storm surge is expected between Mexico Beach and Keaton Beach, where 9 to 13 feet of inundation is possible. Water levels will rise well in advance of the center of Michael, and residents within the storm surge warning area should finish preparations to protect life and property today. 2. Everyone in the hurricane warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast should prepare for life-threatening major hurricane winds associated with the core of Michael. Hurricane force winds will also extend well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as Michael moves inland. 3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeast Virginia. 4. Tropical storm conditions will likely affect portions of the southeast U.S. coast from northeast Florida through North Carolina, and tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued for these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 26.0N 86.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 27.6N 86.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 29.7N 85.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 31.8N 84.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 48H 11/1800Z 33.9N 81.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 12/1800Z 39.0N 70.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/1800Z 45.5N 51.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 14/1800Z 50.0N 30.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Hurricane Michael (AT4/AL142018)
2018-10-09 22:55:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MICHAEL STRENGTHENS TO A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST... As of 4:00 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 the center of Michael was located near 26.0, -86.4 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 957 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.
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Hurricane Michael Public Advisory Number 13
2018-10-09 22:55:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018 000 WTNT34 KNHC 092054 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Michael Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018 ...MICHAEL STRENGTHENS TO A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.0N 86.4W ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Fernandina Beach Florida to South Santee River South Carolina. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay * Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida * Fernandina Beach Florida to South Santee River South Carolina A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River * South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Michael. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 86.4 West. Michael is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward motion is expected through tonight, followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight. The center of Michael is then expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday night and Thursday, and move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the United States on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is expected, and Michael is forecast to be a major hurricane at landfall in Florida. Weakening is expected after landfall as Michael moves through the southeastern United States. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). NOAA buoy 42003 recently reported 1-minute mean winds of 63 mph (101 km/h) and a wind gust of 72 mph (115 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 957 mb (28.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mexico Beach FL to Keaton Beach FL...9-13 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Mexico Beach FL...6-9 ft Keaton Beach FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by tonight or early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions will also spread well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by tonight or early Wednesday, and are possible within the tropical storm watch area by that time. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast by Wednesday, and possible in the watch area by late Wednesday. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday... Western Cuba...An additional 1 to 2 inches. Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life threatening flash floods. The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England coast...1-3 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the coasts of the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico, and will spread to portions of the northwestern and western Gulf of Mexico coast during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: The threat for tornadoes will increase late tonight into Wednesday over parts of the Florida Panhandle, the northern Florida Peninsula, and southern Georgia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Michael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2018-10-09 22:55:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 000 FONT14 KNHC 092054 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MICHAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 2100 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MICHAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 17(32) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 3(17) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 1(16) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) X(34) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 5(18) X(18) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) X(35) X(35) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 48(48) X(48) X(48) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) X(28) X(28) PAX RIVER NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 41(41) X(41) X(41) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 38(39) X(39) X(39) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) RICHMOND VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 27(30) X(30) X(30) DANVILLE VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 58(59) X(59) X(59) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) X(31) X(31) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 62(63) X(63) X(63) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) X(34) X(34) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 65(66) X(66) X(66) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) X(37) X(37) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 72(73) X(73) X(73) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 46(46) X(46) X(46) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) X(26) X(26) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 25(32) X(32) X(32) GREENSBORO NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 54(59) X(59) X(59) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) X(21) X(21) RALEIGH NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 67(70) X(70) X(70) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) X(38) X(38) ROCKY MT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 72(73) X(73) X(73) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 48(48) X(48) X(48) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) X(31) X(31) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 59(74) X(74) X(74) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 37(38) X(38) X(38) FAYETTEVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) 13(38) X(38) X(38) CHARLOTTE NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 71(75) X(75) X(75) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 47(47) X(47) X(47) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) X(22) X(22) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 67(70) X(70) X(70) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 41(41) X(41) X(41) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) X(22) X(22) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 67(71) X(71) X(71) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 43(43) X(43) X(43) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) X(24) X(24) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 65(72) X(72) X(72) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) X(38) X(38) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 62(72) X(72) X(72) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) X(36) X(36) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 53(65) X(65) X(65) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) X(26) X(26) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 37(42) 30(72) X(72) X(72) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) X(27) X(27) FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 52(59) 7(66) X(66) X(66) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17) COLUMBIA SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 45(67) X(67) X(67) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) X(26) X(26) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 38(65) X(65) X(65) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) X(23) X(23) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 29(34) 24(58) X(58) X(58) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) X(14) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 36(43) 10(53) X(53) X(53) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 37(53) 3(56) X(56) X(56) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ATLANTA GA 34 X 3( 3) 22(25) 7(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 1( 1) 24(25) 48(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) AUGUSTA GA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 2( 2) 24(26) 30(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) KINGS BAY GA 34 X 4( 4) 30(34) 5(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 X 6( 6) 57(63) 6(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 6( 6) 22(28) 5(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) JACKSONVILLE 34 X 4( 4) 32(36) 3(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 2 7( 9) 34(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 4( 4) 9(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) THE VILLAGES 34 2 4( 6) 15(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) ORLANDO FL 34 1 3( 4) 6(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PATRICK AFB 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NAPLES FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 2 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VENICE FL 34 2 2( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) TAMPA FL 34 2 4( 6) 9(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) CEDAR KEY FL 34 3 39(42) 14(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 2 78(80) 19(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X 9( 9) 67(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X 1( 1) 35(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) ST MARKS FL 34 2 80(82) 16(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) ST MARKS FL 50 X 10(10) 49(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) ST MARKS FL 64 X 1( 1) 19(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) APALACHICOLA 34 37 63(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) APALACHICOLA 50 1 78(79) 8(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) APALACHICOLA 64 X 36(36) 15(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) GFMX 290N 850W 34 79 21(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 290N 850W 50 2 61(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X 19(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) PANAMA CITY FL 34 28 72(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PANAMA CITY FL 50 1 93(94) 5(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X 75(75) 18(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 10 89(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 1 67(68) 5(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X 27(27) 8(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) COLUMBUS GA 34 X 11(11) 67(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) COLUMBUS GA 50 X 1( 1) 15(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) COLUMBUS GA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MONTGOMERY AL 34 1 12(13) 37(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 2 82(84) 4(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) WHITING FLD FL 50 X 9( 9) 6(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) WHITING FLD FL 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PENSACOLA FL 34 3 81(84) 2(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) PENSACOLA FL 50 X 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) PENSACOLA FL 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 290N 870W 34 95 5(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 290N 870W 50 8 75(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) GFMX 290N 870W 64 2 43(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) MOBILE AL 34 2 12(14) 7(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) GULFPORT MS 34 2 3( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) STENNIS MS 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BURAS LA 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 890W 34 13 4(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) JACKSON MS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 910W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BATON ROUGE LA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Michael Forecast Advisory Number 13
2018-10-09 22:54:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 000 WTNT24 KNHC 092054 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 2100 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA... INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA... INCLUDING TAMPA BAY * ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA TO CHASSAHOWITZKA FLORIDA * FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CHASSAHOWITZKA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA... INCLUDING TAMPA BAY * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 86.4W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......150NE 140SE 70SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 210SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 86.4W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 86.4W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.6N 86.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 70SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 29.7N 85.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 140SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 31.8N 84.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 33.9N 81.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 140SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 39.0N 70.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 240SE 180SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 45.5N 51.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 50.0N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N 86.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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