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Hurricane Michael Graphics
2018-10-10 10:51:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 10 Oct 2018 08:51:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 10 Oct 2018 09:28:37 GMT
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Hurricane Michael Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2018-10-10 10:49:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 10 Oct 2018 08:49:26 GMT
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Hurricane Michael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2018-10-10 10:49:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 000 FONT14 KNHC 100848 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MICHAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 0900 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MICHAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) X(36) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 5(37) X(37) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 21(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 23(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 5( 5) 22(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 15(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 7(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) FLORENCE SC 34 X 5( 5) 41(46) 5(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 9( 9) 60(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 3( 3) 13(16) 10(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 4( 4) 17(21) 6(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 5( 5) 22(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 8( 8) 29(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 1 17(18) 31(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ATLANTA GA 34 2 35(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) AUGUSTA GA 34 2 36(38) 49(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) AUGUSTA GA 50 X 2( 2) 31(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) AUGUSTA GA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAVANNAH GA 34 2 33(35) 23(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) SAVANNAH GA 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 3 33(36) 3(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) WAYCROSS GA 34 5 71(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) WAYCROSS GA 50 X 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MAYPORT NS FL 34 3 24(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) JACKSONVILLE 34 3 34(37) 2(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) JACKSONVILLE 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 9 32(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 2 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) THE VILLAGES 34 3 9(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ORLANDO FL 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) COCOA BEACH FL 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PATRICK AFB 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VENICE FL 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TAMPA FL 34 3 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CEDAR KEY FL 34 45 11(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) CEDAR KEY FL 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 27 68(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 1 36(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) ST MARKS FL 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ST MARKS FL 50 27 57(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) ST MARKS FL 64 2 10(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) APALACHICOLA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) APALACHICOLA 50 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) APALACHICOLA 64 43 7(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) GFMX 290N 850W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 290N 850W 50 93 X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) GFMX 290N 850W 64 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PANAMA CITY FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PANAMA CITY FL 50 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PANAMA CITY FL 64 95 2(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 55 1(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 10 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) COLUMBUS GA 34 11 81(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) COLUMBUS GA 50 1 16(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) COLUMBUS GA 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 2 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MONTGOMERY AL 34 12 44(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) MONTGOMERY AL 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 93 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) WHITING FLD FL 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WHITING FLD FL 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PENSACOLA FL 34 91 X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) PENSACOLA FL 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA FL 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 870W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 290N 870W 50 51 X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) GFMX 290N 870W 64 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MOBILE AL 34 4 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GULFPORT MS 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) STENNIS MS 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BURAS LA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSON MS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Michael Public Advisory Number 15
2018-10-10 10:48:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 000 WTNT34 KNHC 100848 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Michael Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 MICHAEL STRENGTHENS FURTHER AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.3N 86.5W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ABOUT 130 MI...215 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from South Santee River, South Carolina to Surf City, North Carolina. The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued west of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida * North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Surf City North Carolina A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River * Surf City North Carolina to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the next 12 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Michael. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 86.5 West. Michael is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north- northeast is expected this morning, with a turn toward the northeast expected this afternoon or tonight. A motion toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the eye of Michael is expected to move ashore over the Florida Panhandle later today, move northeastward across the southeastern United States tonight and Thursday, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the United States on Friday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible before landfall. After landfall, Michael should weaken as it crosses the southeastern United States. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). NOAA buoy 42039 to the northeast of the center recently reported sustained winds of 54 mph (85 km/h) and a wind gust of 63 mph (101 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 943 mb (27.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Tyndall Air Force Base FL to Keaton Beach FL...9-13 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Tyndall Air Force Base FL...6-9 ft Keaton Beach FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area along the U.S. Gulf Coast today, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin during the next few hours. Hurricane conditions will also spread well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area during the next several hours, and are possible within the tropical storm watch area by that time. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area today. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning tonight, and are possible in the watch area by late Thursday and Thursday night. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday... Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England coast...1-3 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the coasts of the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico, and will spread to portions of the northwestern and western Gulf of Mexico coast during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible across parts of the Florida Panhandle and the northern Florida Peninsula through this afternoon. This risk will spread into parts of central and southern Georgia and southern South Carolina this afternoon and tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Hourly position estimates will begin at 500 AM CDT. Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Michael Forecast Advisory Number 15
2018-10-10 10:48:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 000 WTNT24 KNHC 100847 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 0900 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA TO CHASSAHOWITZKA FLORIDA * NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CHASSAHOWITZKA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER * SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 86.5W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......160NE 140SE 70SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 210SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 86.5W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 86.6W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 29.9N 85.7W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 70SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 32.1N 83.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 140SE 90SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 34.4N 80.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 36.8N 75.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 140SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 43.5N 59.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 240SE 180SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 49.5N 36.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 52.0N 17.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.3N 86.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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