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Hurricane Michael Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2018-10-09 16:43:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 09 Oct 2018 14:43:58 GMT
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Hurricane Michael Forecast Discussion Number 12
2018-10-09 16:43:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018 000 WTNT44 KNHC 091443 TCDAT4 Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018 Michael has continued to become better organized this morning. The hurricane has become more symmetric with the eye becoming more apparent in infrared and visible satellite imagery. Data from both NOAA and U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that the minimum pressure has dropped to around 965 mb, and a blend of the flight-level and SFMR winds support an initial intensity of 95 kt for this advisory. With two aircraft in the storm, they have been able to sample each of the four quadrants a couple of times this morning, providing better confidence in the analyzed wind field. The planes actually passed through the eye around the same time just before 1200 UTC, and reported that they could see one another. The outflow pattern has become better established over the hurricane, but there is still a little evidence of some westerly shear. The shear should continue to decrease, and further strengthening is expected until landfall on Wednesday. Michael is expected to become a major hurricane later today, and remain a dangerous major hurricane through landfall. Significant weakening should occur as the center moves inland over the southeastern United States, but re-strengthening as an extratropical low is expected when the system moves over the western Atlantic. Michael is moving between north-northwest and north at about 10 kt. The track forecast reasoning is the same as the past several advisories, as Michael should move generally northward through early Wednesday between a ridge over the western Atlantic and a deep-layer trough over the central United States. As the trough moves eastward it will cause Michael to turn northeastward on Wednesday. The hurricane should then continue northeastward and accelerate as it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The track guidance is in very good agreement through the first 36-48 hours, with some differences in forward speed thereafter. The GFS and ECMWF have trended slower after landfall, and the new NHC track has been adjusted accordingly. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, and a storm surge warning is in effect for these areas. Water levels will rise well in advance of the center of Michael, and residents within the storm surge warning area should finish preparations to protect life and property today. 2. Everyone in the hurricane warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast should prepare for life-threatening major hurricane winds associated with the core of Michael. Hurricane force winds will also extend well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as Michael moves inland. 3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into portions of Georgia and South Carolina. 4. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over portions of western Cuba during the next day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 25.0N 86.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 26.7N 86.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 28.8N 86.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 30.8N 85.1W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 48H 11/1200Z 33.0N 82.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 12/1200Z 37.5N 74.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/1200Z 44.0N 56.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 14/1200Z 50.0N 38.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Hurricane Michael (AT4/AL142018)
2018-10-09 16:42:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT THAT MICHAEL IS STILL STRENGTHENING... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST... As of 10:00 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 the center of Michael was located near 25.0, -86.2 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 965 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
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Hurricane Michael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2018-10-09 16:42:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 000 FONT14 KNHC 091442 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MICHAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 1500 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MICHAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 38(41) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 7(19) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 1(34) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 2(18) X(18) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 1(26) X(26) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) X(20) X(20) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) X(18) X(18) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 1(38) X(38) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) X(39) X(39) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 42(42) X(42) X(42) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 49(49) X(49) X(49) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) X(21) X(21) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 35(37) X(37) X(37) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) RALEIGH NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 45(46) X(46) X(46) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) ROCKY MT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 46(46) X(46) X(46) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 51(56) X(56) X(56) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) FAYETTEVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 21(30) X(30) X(30) CHARLOTTE NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 49(50) X(50) X(50) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) X(17) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 45(45) X(45) X(45) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 47(48) X(48) X(48) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 49(51) X(51) X(51) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 48(51) X(51) X(51) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 39(44) X(44) X(44) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 50(62) X(62) X(62) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19) FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 24(29) 32(61) X(61) X(61) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) X(15) COLUMBIA SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 45(52) X(52) X(52) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) X(17) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 42(51) X(51) X(51) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) X(17) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 37(49) X(49) X(49) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) 25(48) X(48) X(48) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) 10(10) 27(37) 14(51) X(51) X(51) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) 17(17) 15(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 12(12) 44(56) 10(66) X(66) X(66) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 7(19) X(19) X(19) AUGUSTA GA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 15(15) 31(46) 7(53) X(53) X(53) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) KINGS BAY GA 34 X 2( 2) 23(25) 16(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 X 4( 4) 41(45) 23(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 4( 4) 20(24) 13(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 X 4( 4) 25(29) 13(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 34 2 4( 6) 33(39) 5(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 3( 3) 12(15) 5(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) THE VILLAGES 34 2 3( 5) 19(24) 4(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) ORLANDO FL 34 1 3( 4) 9(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PATRICK AFB 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) KEY WEST FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FT MYERS FL 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) VENICE FL 34 3 3( 6) 6(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) TAMPA FL 34 3 3( 6) 15(21) 2(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) CEDAR KEY FL 34 4 30(34) 22(56) 2(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 2 34(36) 60(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X 1( 1) 61(62) 7(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) 25(25) 5(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) ST MARKS FL 34 2 41(43) 52(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) ST MARKS FL 50 X 2( 2) 48(50) 4(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) 15(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) APALACHICOLA 34 8 85(93) 6(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) APALACHICOLA 50 X 33(33) 52(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) APALACHICOLA 64 X 4( 4) 46(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) GFMX 290N 850W 34 43 55(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 290N 850W 50 2 49(51) 17(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X 11(11) 14(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) PANAMA CITY FL 34 6 88(94) 6(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X 41(41) 56(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X 6( 6) 79(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 4 82(86) 13(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X 18(18) 48(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X 4( 4) 29(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) COLUMBUS GA 34 X 5( 5) 55(60) 13(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) 10(10) 10(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) COLUMBUS GA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X 5( 5) 41(46) 4(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 2 49(51) 29(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) WHITING FLD FL 50 X 2( 2) 16(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 2 56(58) 21(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) PENSACOLA FL 50 X 3( 3) 10(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 290N 870W 34 51 49(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 290N 870W 50 2 82(84) 2(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X 50(50) 4(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) MOBILE AL 34 2 10(12) 13(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) MOBILE AL 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 2 4( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) STENNIS MS 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BURAS LA 34 2 3( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 280N 890W 34 9 17(26) 3(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) GFMX 280N 890W 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JACKSON MS 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 910W 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MORGAN CITY LA 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Michael Public Advisory Number 12
2018-10-09 16:42:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018 000 WTNT34 KNHC 091442 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Michael Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT THAT MICHAEL IS STILL STRENGTHENING... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 86.2W ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Watch for the coast of Alabama has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay * Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River * Fernandina Beach Florida to South Santee River South Carolina A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Michael. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 86.2 West. Michael is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward motion is expected through tonight, followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight. The center of Michael is then expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday night and Thursday, and move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the United States by Friday. Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Michael is forecast to be a major hurricane at landfall in Florida. Weakening is expected after landfall as Michael moves through the southeastern United States. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). NOAA buoy 42003 recently reported 1-minute mean winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a wind gust of 56 mph (91 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass FL to Cedar Key FL...8-12 ft Cedar Key FL to Crystal River FL...6-8 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Indian Pass FL...6-9 ft Crystal River FL to Aripeka FL...4-6 ft Aripeka FL to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by tonight or early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions will also spread well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by tonight or early Wednesday, and are possible within the tropical storm watch area by that time. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the southeast U.S. coast Wednesday night and Thursday. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday... Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and southern Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life threatening flash floods. Eastern Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3 to 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England coast...1-3 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the coasts of the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico, and will spread to portions of the northwestern and western Gulf of Mexico coast during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: The threat for tornadoes will increase late tonight into Wednesday over parts of the Florida Panhandle, the northern Florida Peninsula, and southern Georgia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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