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Hurricane Michael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2018-10-10 16:50:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 000 FONT14 KNHC 101450 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MICHAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 1500 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MICHAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 41(49) X(49) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) X(16) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 5(23) X(23) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 46(46) X(46) X(46) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) X(16) X(16) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) DANVILLE VA 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 10(10) 37(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 11(11) 37(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 11(11) 40(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 22(22) 38(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GREENSBORO NC 34 X 2( 2) 15(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) RALEIGH NC 34 X 2( 2) 43(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 1( 1) 49(50) 5(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ROCKY MT NC 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 15(15) 22(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 3( 3) 57(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) FAYETTEVILLE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CHARLOTTE NC 34 1 5( 6) 21(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 36(36) 6(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 24(24) 7(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 28(28) 6(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SURF CITY NC 34 X 2( 2) 32(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 2( 2) 33(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 2( 2) 20(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) FLORENCE SC 34 1 5( 6) 52(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) COLUMBIA SC 34 2 32(34) 25(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) COLUMBIA SC 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 4( 4) 27(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 4( 4) 25(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) GEORGETOWN SC 34 1 4( 5) 18(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) CHARLESTON SC 34 2 7( 9) 9(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 3 20(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) ATLANTA GA 34 5 24(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) AUGUSTA GA 34 4 81(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) AUGUSTA GA 50 X 18(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) SAVANNAH GA 34 4 33(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) KINGS BAY GA 34 10 12(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) WAYCROSS GA 34 62 16(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) WAYCROSS GA 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 6 7(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) JACKSONVILLE 34 12 9(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) GAINESVILLE FL 34 16 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) DAYTONA BEACH 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) THE VILLAGES 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ORLANDO FL 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 18 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 20 X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) ST MARKS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ST MARKS FL 50 79 X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) ST MARKS FL 64 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) APALACHICOLA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) APALACHICOLA 64 31 X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) GFMX 290N 850W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 290N 850W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PANAMA CITY FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PANAMA CITY FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PANAMA CITY FL 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 12 X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) COLUMBUS GA 34 91 4(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) COLUMBUS GA 50 5 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) COLUMBUS GA 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 20 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) WHITING FLD FL 34 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) PENSACOLA FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 290N 870W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 290N 870W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOBILE AL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Michael Public Advisory Number 16
2018-10-10 16:50:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 000 WTNT34 KNHC 101450 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Michael Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 ...CORE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MICHAEL CLOSING IN ON THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL IMMINENT... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.4N 86.0W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...928 MB...27.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of North Carolina from Surf City to Duck including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the coast of North Carolina from Ocracoke Inlet to Duck. The Tropical Storm Watch for the Gulf coast west of the Mississippi/ Alabama border has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay * Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida * North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Michael. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 86.0 West. Michael is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected this afternoon or tonight. A motion toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast on Thursday through Friday night. On the forecast track, the core of Michael is expected to move ashore along the Florida Panhandle early this afternoon, move northeastward across the southeastern United States tonight and Thursday, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the United States on Friday. Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is still possible before landfall. After landfall, Michael should weaken as it crosses the southeastern United States. Michael is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone on Friday, and strengthening is forecast as the system moves over the western Atlantic. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). A private weather station at Bald Point, Florida, recently reported a sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) with a gust to 61 mph (98 km/h). A wind gust to 46 mph (74 km/h) was recently reported inland at Tallahassee, Florida. The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the reconnaissance aircraft is 928 mb (27.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Tyndall Air Force Base FL to Aucilla River FL...9-14 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Tyndall Air Force Base FL...6-9 ft Aucilla River FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to Duck...2-4 ft WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are spreading onshore along the U.S. Gulf Coast within the warning areas. Hurricane conditions will also spread well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia later today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning tonight through Friday. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday... Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England coast...1-3 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible across parts of the Florida Panhandle and the northern Florida Peninsula through this afternoon. This risk will spread northward into parts of Georgia and southern South Carolina this afternoon and tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Michael Forecast Advisory Number 16
2018-10-10 16:50:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 000 WTNT24 KNHC 101449 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 1500 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM SURF CITY TO DUCK INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM OCRACOKE INLET TO DUCK. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE GULF COAST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI/ ALABAMA BORDER HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY * OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA TO CHASSAHOWITZKA FLORIDA * NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CHASSAHOWITZKA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 86.0W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 928 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......150NE 140SE 80SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 240SE 210SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 86.0W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 86.3W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 31.3N 84.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 130SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 33.6N 82.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 140SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 35.8N 78.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 180SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 38.7N 71.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 120SE 120SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 240SE 180SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 45.5N 52.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 210SE 180SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 360SE 270SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 49.0N 29.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 50.0N 13.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 86.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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KATU: Local Red Cross volunteers and firefighters heading to aid in Hurricane Michael relief
2018-10-10 16:23:03| PortlandOnline
News story posted to KATU.com October 9, 2018.
Summary for Hurricane Michael (AT4/AL142018)
2018-10-10 15:55:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CORE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MICHAEL CLOSING IN ON THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL IMMINENT... As of 10:00 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 the center of Michael was located near 29.4, -86.0 with movement NNE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 928 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.
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