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Tropical Storm Pamela Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2021-10-13 04:37:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 13 2021 064 FOPZ11 KNHC 130237 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM PAMELA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 0300 UTC WED OCT 13 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAMELA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LA PAZ 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CULIACAN 34 53 7(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) ISLAS MARIAS 34 15 X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) MAZATLAN 34 91 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) MAZATLAN 50 39 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) MAZATLAN 64 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN BLAS 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P VALLARTA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Pamela (EP1/EP162021)
2021-10-13 04:36:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...PAMELA FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A HURRICANE IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY MORNING... As of 9:00 PM MDT Tue Oct 12 the center of Pamela was located near 21.9, -108.7 with movement NNE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-10-13 01:45:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 122345 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Tue Oct 12 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Pamela, located about 200 miles southwest of Mazatlan, Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Pamela (EP1/EP162021)
2021-10-13 01:43:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...OUTER RAINBANDS FROM PAMELA MOVING OVER ISLAS MARIAS... ...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING... As of 6:00 PM MDT Tue Oct 12 the center of Pamela was located near 21.5, -108.9 with movement NNE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Pamela Public Advisory Number 11A
2021-10-13 01:43:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 PM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 122343 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pamela Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 600 PM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 ...OUTER RAINBANDS FROM PAMELA MOVING OVER ISLAS MARIAS... ...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING... SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 108.9W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 015 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Bahia Tempehuaya to Altata * South of Escuinapa to Cabo Corrientes * Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Los Barilles to Cabo San Lucas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, in this case within the next 12 hours, producing conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pamela was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 108.9 West. Pamela is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected to begin overnight and continue through late Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Pamela will pass well south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula through tonight, and make landfall in west-central Mexico within the hurricane warning area Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Restrengthening is forecast overnight, and Pamela is expected to become a hurricane again before it reaches the coast of west-central Mexico Wednesday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Pamela can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near where the center of Pamela makes landfall in southwestern Mexico. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area by late tonight or early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning later this evening. Tropical storm conditions, primarily in gusts, are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area in Baja California del Sur through this evening. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Pamela is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Mexican States of Sinaloa, western Durango, and northern Nayarit...4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Across southern portions of Baja California Sur...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This may result in considerable flash and urban flooding impacts. SURF: Swells generated by Pamela will continue to affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula, as well as southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico through Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown/Reinhart
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