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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-08-10 04:49:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 100249 TCMAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 0300 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON THE SOUTH COAST FROM PUNTA PALENQUE EASTWARD AND ON THE NORTH COAST FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO EASTWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN HAITI FROM THE BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THE SOUTH COAST FROM PUNTA PALENQUE EASTWARD AND ON THE NORTH COAST FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO EASTWARD A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE * DOMINICA * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THE NORTH COAST FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER. * HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 60.8W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 60.8W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 60.1W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 16.2N 63.1W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 17.5N 66.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 18.7N 68.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 19.9N 71.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 20.9N 74.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.7N 76.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 23.4N 79.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 26.1N 82.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 60.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 10/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Kevin Graphics
2021-08-10 04:34:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Aug 2021 02:34:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Aug 2021 02:34:54 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 11
2021-08-10 04:34:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 100233 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 900 PM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021 Kevin remains a sheared tropical cyclone with most of the convection displaced to the southwest of the elongated inner-core wind field due to strong northeasterly vertical wind shear. However, some small curved bands of shallow convection have recently developed in the eastern semicircle, suggesting that the shear might be starting to abate somewhat. The initial intensity has been decreased to 40 kt, more in line with earlier ASCAT surface wind data that showed peak surface winds near 40 kt. The initial motion estimate remains west-northwestward, or 295/08 kt. There is no change to the previous track forecast reasoning. Kevin is expected to continue moving west-northwestward through the 120-h forecast period along the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge. The new NHC track forecast is just a tad to the right or north of the previous track, but remains near the southern portion of the track model envelope, between the ECMWF model to the south and the consensus models to the north. Kevin is forecast remain under the influence of at least modest northeasterly to easterly wind shear for the next 48 h. Thus little change in strength is expected despite he warm sea-surface temperatures (SST) exceeding 28C and a very moist mid-level environment exceeding 80 percent relative humidity. Thereafter the shear is forecast to decrease to less than 10 kt, which would normally favor intensification. However, Kevin will be moving over near-22 deg C SSTs at that time, so weakening rather than strengthening is forecast in the 72-120 period. The latest official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows a blend of the consensus models HCCA and IVCN, and the Navy COAMPS-TC model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 17.4N 112.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 18.1N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 19.0N 115.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 20.0N 116.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 21.0N 118.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 12/1200Z 21.8N 120.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 22.7N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/0000Z 24.6N 127.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/0000Z 26.2N 132.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Kevin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2021-08-10 04:34:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 100233 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 0300 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 9 58(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) ISLA CLARION 50 1 12(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ISLA CLARION 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 115W 34 X 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm Kevin (EP1/EP112021)
2021-08-10 04:33:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KEVIN CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR CLARION ISLAND OVERNIGHT... As of 9:00 PM MDT Mon Aug 9 the center of Kevin was located near 17.4, -112.9 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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