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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Advisory Number 10
2021-08-09 22:32:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 09 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 092032 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 2100 UTC MON AUG 09 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 112.2W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 110SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 120SE 60SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 112.2W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 111.8W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.7N 113.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 70SE 110SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.5N 114.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 70SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.3N 116.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.4N 117.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.2N 119.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 22.0N 121.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 23.6N 126.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 25.5N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 112.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-09 19:36:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 091736 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Aug 9 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated with the area of low pressure located about 100 miles east-northeast of Barbados continue to show signs of organization. However, recent satellite wind data indicates that the system currently lacks a well-defined center. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form later today or tonight while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The disturbance is forecast to move through portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight, then move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday, and Hispaniola on Wednesday. Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required this afternoon with shorter-than-normal lead times for portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. In addition, heavy rains and flooding are likely for the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Showers and thunderstorms in association with an elongated low pressure area located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles have diminished. Environmental conditions have become unfavorable and development of this system is no longer expected. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown/Papin
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-09 19:20:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 091720 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Mon Aug 9 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Kevin, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this disturbance, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next couple of days. This system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph through midweek, parallel to and offshore of the coast of southern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Kevin Graphics
2021-08-09 16:35:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Aug 2021 14:35:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Aug 2021 14:35:16 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-08-09 16:34:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 091434 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021 Kevin has been successfully battling moderate northeasterly wind shear overnight, as a large convective mass with cloud tops colder than -80 degrees C has persisted for several hours over the center and southwestern portion of the cyclone's large circulation. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates have a large spread, ranging from 55 kt from TAFB to 35 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT. A mean of 45 kt from these values suggest that the storm's initial intensity remains the same as 6 h ago, which seems reasonable as the overall appearance of Kevin has changed little this morning. The storm is moving to the west-northwest at 300/07 kt along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. This steering pattern is forecast by all of the forecast models to remain in tact for the next several days, resulting in a continued west-northwestward motion. The only notable change in the track guidance was a slight shift to the north, and the latest NHC track forecast lies in between the previous one and the tightly clustered track guidance. The favorable thermodynamic environment and warm water have allowed Kevin to maintain deep convection despite the vertical wind shear. With the large amount of convection occurring near and over the center of the cyclone, it is possible for some slight strengthening to occur in the short-term, despite wind shear persisting over the next couple of days. By 48 hours, Kevin will begin to move over decreasing SSTs and into a more stable atmospheric environment. These unfavorable thermodynamic conditions should cause the cyclone to begin weakening. By 96 hours, the system is forecast to be over water temperatures of less than 23 degrees C, which should result in the cyclone degenerating into a remnant low. The latest NHC intensity forecast was decreased slightly from the previous one, and is in good agreement with the various intensity consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 16.6N 111.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 17.3N 112.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 18.1N 114.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 18.9N 115.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 19.7N 117.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 12/0000Z 20.6N 119.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 21.4N 121.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 13/1200Z 23.0N 125.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1200Z 24.5N 130.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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