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Subtropical Storm Theta Update Statement
2020-11-10 14:56:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 155 PM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020 000 WTNT65 KNHC 101356 TCUAT5 Subtropical Storm Theta Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 155 PM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020 ...THETA STRONGER... Recently received satellite wind data indicate that Theta has strengthened and now has maximum sustained winds of around 70 mph (110 km/h), with higher gusts. This change in intensity will be reflected in the forecast that will be issued with the 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC) advisory. SUMMARY OF 155 PM GMT...1355 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.9N 37.6W ABOUT 875 MI...1410 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES $$ Forecaster Latto/Brennan
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Subtropical Storm Theta Graphics
2020-11-10 09:49:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Nov 2020 08:49:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Nov 2020 08:49:15 GMT
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Subtropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-11-10 09:48:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 100848 TCDAT5 Subtropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 AM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020 Theta has generally changed little during the past several hours. The cyclone has some characteristics of a tropical cyclone, including a central dense overcast and a relatively small radius of maximum wind. However, the storm is still entangled with an upper-level trough, and based on all of these factors, Theta is being maintained as a subtropical storm. The initial wind speed remains 45 kt, which is at the high end of the satellite intensity estimates. The storm is moving due eastward at about 10 kt. The track forecast reasoning seems fairly straightforward. A trough to the north of the subtropical storm is expected to lift out, and Theta should be steered eastward to east-northeastward during the next several days on the north side of a mid-level ridge. This motion should take the cyclone across the subtropical eastern Atlantic throughout the forecast period. The models are in fairly good agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the various consensus aids. Theta should transition to a tropical storm later today as it separates from the upper-level trough. Little change in intensity is expected during the next several days due to mixed environmental conditions. Although Theta will be tracking over progressively cooler SSTs and within moderate wind shear conditions, the air mass is expected to remain unstable, which should be supportive of deep convection. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and lies near the high end of the model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 28.8N 39.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 28.9N 37.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 29.2N 35.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 29.7N 33.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 30.4N 31.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 12/1800Z 31.0N 29.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 31.4N 26.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 14/0600Z 32.2N 22.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 15/0600Z 33.1N 19.9W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Subtropical Storm Theta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-11-10 09:47:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE NOV 10 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 100847 PWSAT5 SUBTROPICAL STORM THETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 0900 UTC TUE NOV 10 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM THETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Subtropical Storm Theta (AT5/AL302020)
2020-11-10 09:47:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...THETA EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... As of 9:00 AM GMT Tue Nov 10 the center of Theta was located near 28.8, -39.5 with movement E at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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