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Subtropical Storm Ana Graphics
2021-05-22 16:48:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 22 May 2021 14:48:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 22 May 2021 14:48:47 GMT
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Subtropical Storm Ana Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-05-22 16:38:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat May 22 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 221438 TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Ana Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012021 1100 AM AST Sat May 22 2021 Satellite imagery and radar data from Bermuda indicate that the central convection associated with Ana has changed little in organization during the past several hours, with a complex of small bands near the center at this time. The initial intensity will be held at 40 kt based on the latest intensity estimate from TAFB, although recently-received ASCAT data suggests this could be a little generous. Although the cyclone has some characteristics of a tropical cyclone, Ana remains a subtropical storm based on its position near the center of a large upper-level low pressure system and the current lack of anticyclonic upper-level outflow. The initial motion is 270/3. Ana and the large low it is embedded in are expected to turn northward later today as a developing mid-latitude cyclone over eastern Canada and the New England states erodes the subtropical ridge west of Ana. After that, the storm is expected to turn northeastward on the southeast side of the mid-latitude cyclone. The track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and the new track forecast is similar to, but a little slower than, the various consensus models. Little change in strength is expected for the next 12 h or so. After Ana recurves, a combination of increasing shear, dry air, and decreasing SSTs should cause the storm to gradually weaken tonight and Sunday. The large-scale models agree upon Ana opening up into a trough of low pressure in 36-48 h, and the official forecast shows this happening just after 48 h. The remnant trough will likely be absorbed by a cold front associated with the mid-latitude cyclone shortly thereafter. The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 34.3N 63.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 34.8N 62.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 35.8N 61.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 37.2N 57.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 39.7N 52.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Subtropical Storm Ana (AT1/AL012021)
2021-05-22 16:38:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ANA NOW MOVING WESTWARD WHILE NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat May 22 the center of Ana was located near 34.3, -63.0 with movement W at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Subtropical Storm Ana Public Advisory Number 2
2021-05-22 16:38:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat May 22 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 221438 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Ana Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012021 1100 AM AST Sat May 22 2021 ...ANA NOW MOVING WESTWARD WHILE NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.3N 63.0W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM NE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches of warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Ana was located near latitude 34.3 North, longitude 63.0 West. The storm is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the north at a slow forward speed is expected later today, followed by a faster motion toward the northeast Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, but gradual weakening is expected tonight and Sunday. Ana is expected to dissipate in a couple of days. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) mainly to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Locally gusty winds are possible on Bermuda today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Subtropical Storm Ana Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2021-05-22 16:38:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT MAY 22 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 221438 PWSAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012021 1500 UTC SAT MAY 22 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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