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Subtropical Storm Ana Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2021-05-22 22:41:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT MAY 22 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 222041 PWSAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012021 2100 UTC SAT MAY 22 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Subtropical Storm Ana Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-05-22 22:39:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat May 22 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 222039 TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Ana Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012021 500 PM AST Sat May 22 2021 While Ana continues to produce convection near the center, the amount of convection has decreased during the past several hours. In addition, earlier scatterometer data and recent satellite intensity estimates from TAFB suggest the cyclone has weakened. The initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt. A combination of increasing shear, dry air, and decreasing SSTs should cause Ana to gradually weaken, and most of the global models now show the system decaying to a trough in about 36 h. The new intensity forecast calls for a slow weakening with dissipation just after that time, and it is possible that Ana could dissipate earlier than currently forecast. Ana made a small counter-clockwise loop during the past few hours, and the initial motion is now 050/4. A continued northeastward motion at an increasing forward speed, due to the southwesterly flow associated with a developing mid-latitude cyclone to the north and northwest, is expected until the cyclone dissipates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 34.5N 62.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 34.9N 61.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 36.2N 59.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 38.3N 54.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Subtropical Storm Ana (AT1/AL012021)
2021-05-22 22:37:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ANA NOW STARTING TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat May 22 the center of Ana was located near 34.5, -62.4 with movement NE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Subtropical Storm Ana Public Advisory Number 3
2021-05-22 22:37:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat May 22 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 222037 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Ana Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012021 500 PM AST Sat May 22 2021 ...ANA NOW STARTING TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.5N 62.4W ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM NE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Ana was located near latitude 34.5 North, longitude 62.4 West. The storm is moving toward the northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A faster motion toward the northeast is expected tonight through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are now near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected Sunday and Sunday night, and Ana is expected to dissipate by Monday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Subtropical Storm Ana Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-05-22 22:35:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT MAY 22 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 222035 TCMAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012021 2100 UTC SAT MAY 22 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OF WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 62.4W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 60SE 240SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 62.4W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 62.6W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 34.9N 61.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 36.2N 59.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 38.3N 54.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.5N 62.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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