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Subtropical Storm ANA Graphics
2015-05-08 23:07:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 May 2015 20:53:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 May 2015 21:03:44 GMT
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Subtropical Storm ANA Forecast Discussion Number 4
2015-05-08 22:51:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT FRI MAY 08 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 082051 TCDAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 500 PM EDT FRI MAY 08 2015 Ana is in the latter stages of tropical transition with curved deep convection closer to the center, with some evidence of a shrinking radius of maximum winds. Still, the convection isn't particularly deep, and an upper-level low remains basically on top of the cyclone. Ana will remain a subtropical cyclone on this advisory, but it would not be surprising if the aircraft mission this evening found enough tropical characteristics to signal a transition to a tropical storm. The maximum winds are kept at 40 kt, which is a blend of the satellite classifications from TAFB and SAB. Ana continues to meander beneath a blocking ridge along the U.S. east coast. While the overall ridge pattern shifts slowly eastward, the western part of the ridge is forecast to build slightly over the Ohio Valley tomorrow. This will help steer Ana more to the northwest, and model guidance continues to be in good agreement in bringing Ana to the coast of the Carolinas in about two days. Only a small eastward adjustment was required to the previous forecast track near the time of landfall. A strong trough should then cause Ana to move more quickly to the north and east late Sunday and into early next week. Extratropical transition should be complete by 96 hr due to interaction of Ana with the trough and the cold waters of the North Atlantic. Some intensification of Ana is still possible since the cyclone remains parked over the Gulf Stream with cold upper-level temperatures promoting more convection than one would expect given the marginally warm waters. However, there is quite a bit of dry air around the storm, which seems to be limiting convection. Some weakening of Ana seems probable on Sunday due to the storm's motion over cooler shelf waters. The latest NHC forecast is close to the previous one, near or slightly above the model consensus. Most of the global models show a little bit of strengthening of Ana in its extratropical phase, so the intensity was raised at 96 and 120 hr. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 31.7N 77.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 31.9N 77.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 32.3N 77.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 33.0N 78.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 33.6N 78.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 36.0N 77.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 12/1800Z 40.5N 69.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/1800Z 46.0N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Subtropical Storm ANA (AT1/AL012015)
2015-05-08 22:51:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ANA ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD... As of 5:00 PM EDT Fri May 8 the center of ANA was located near 31.7, -77.4 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Subtropical Storm ANA Public Advisory Number 4
2015-05-08 22:51:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT FRI MAY 08 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 082051 TCPAT1 BULLETIN SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 500 PM EDT FRI MAY 08 2015 ...ANA ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.7N 77.4W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from North of Surf City to Cape Lookout North Carolina. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Cape Lookout A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to South of South Santee River A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24-36 hours. Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina should monitor the progress of Ana. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Ana was located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 77.4 West. The storm has been meandering today, but is expected to begin a north- northwestward motion overnight. A turn toward the northwest with a slight increase in forward speed is expected on Saturday. On the forecast track the center of Ana will be close to the coasts of South and North Carolina on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h), with higher gusts. Satellite images indicate that Ana continues its transition to a tropical storm, which should be complete by early Saturday. Little change in strength is expected while the storm approaches the coastline over the next couple of days. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, and possible within the watch areas, by Saturday evening. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The water could reach 1 to 2 ft above ground at times of high tide in coastal areas from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina southward through South Carolina. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Ana is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches, over eastern portions of North Carolina and South Carolina through the weekend. SURF: Swells generated by Ana are affecting portions of the southeastern U.S. coast. These swells will likely cause life- threatening surf and rip currents. Please see statements issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
Subtropical Storm ANA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2015-05-08 22:51:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI MAY 08 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 082051 PWSAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 2100 UTC FRI MAY 08 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 1(13) RICHMOND VA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 8(11) 3(14) X(14) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 9(13) 4(17) X(17) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 9(13) 4(17) X(17) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) X(14) GREENSBORO NC 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 6(14) 1(15) X(15) RALEIGH NC 34 2 4( 6) 3( 9) 4(13) 8(21) 1(22) X(22) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 4 4( 8) 2(10) 1(11) 9(20) 2(22) X(22) CHARLOTTE NC 34 1 4( 5) 2( 7) 3(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) MOREHEAD CITY 34 10 9(19) 5(24) 3(27) 7(34) 1(35) X(35) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 18 14(32) 7(39) 4(43) 5(48) 1(49) X(49) WILMINGTON NC 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) COLUMBIA SC 34 4 6(10) 4(14) 3(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) MYRTLE BEACH 34 26 18(44) 10(54) 4(58) 2(60) 1(61) X(61) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CHARLESTON SC 34 17 15(32) 7(39) 3(42) 2(44) X(44) X(44) CHARLESTON SC 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) AUGUSTA GA 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) SAVANNAH GA 34 5 6(11) 4(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) MAYPORT NS 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) JACKSONVILLE 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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