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Subtropical Storm ALEX Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2016-01-13 21:31:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JAN 13 2016 000 FONT11 KNHC 132031 PWSAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ALEX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 2100 UTC WED JAN 13 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) 18(18) 18(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) PONTA DELGADA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Subtropical Storm ALEX Forecast Advisory Number 1
2016-01-13 21:31:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JAN 13 2016 000 WTNT21 KNHC 132030 TCMAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ALEX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 2100 UTC WED JAN 13 2016 INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ALEX. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 30.8W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 120SE 120SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 270SE 420SW 720NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 30.8W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 31.4W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 28.9N 29.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 120SE 120SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 32.0N 28.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 36.3N 27.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 42.3N 28.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 100NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 56.0N 34.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 100NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.1N 30.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Subtropical Storm ANA Graphics
2015-05-09 08:00:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 09 May 2015 06:00:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 09 May 2015 03:03:44 GMT
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Summary for Subtropical Storm ANA (AT1/AL012015)
2015-05-09 07:56:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ANA MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS... ...EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM EDT Sat May 9 the center of ANA was located near 32.2, -77.5 with movement NNW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Subtropical Storm ANA Public Advisory Number 5A
2015-05-09 07:56:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM EDT SAT MAY 09 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 090556 TCPAT1 BULLETIN SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 200 AM EDT SAT MAY 09 2015 ...ANA MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS... ...EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.2N 77.5W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Cape Lookout A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to South of South Santee River A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24-36 hours. Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina should monitor the progress of Ana. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Ana was located near latitude 32.2 North, longitude 77.5 West. The storm is moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the northwest and then back to the north at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center will be near the coasts of South and North Carolina by Sunday morning. Data from NOAA Doppler weather radars indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little additional strengthening is forecast through today. A gradual weakening trend is likely to begin within 24 hours. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. During the past hour, the Frying Pan Shoals NOAA buoy measured a sustained wind of 37 mph (57 km/h) and a gust to 47 mph (76 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure was 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, and possible within the watch area, by this afternoon or evening. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The water could reach 1 to 2 ft above ground at times of high tide in coastal areas from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina southward through South Carolina. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Ana is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches, over eastern portions of North Carolina and South Carolina through the weekend. SURF: Swells generated by Ana are affecting portions of the southeastern U.S. coast. These swells will likely cause life- threatening surf and rip currents. Please see statements issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart/Roberts
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