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Subtropical Storm ANA Forecast Discussion Number 1
2015-05-08 04:33:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT THU MAY 07 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 080233 TCDAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 1100 PM EDT THU MAY 07 2015 Satellite imagery shows some increase in deep convection this evening, and the low pressure system off the southeast U.S. coast is now being designated as a subtropical storm. Based on adjusted SFMR winds from a hurricane hunter aircraft that has been investigating the system, the current intensity is set at 40 kt. Data from the aircraft also show that the radius of maximum winds has decreased somewhat from earlier today, but at 80 n mi it is still too large to justify classifying Ana as a tropical cyclone at this time. Since there has been more deep convection occurring near the center over the past several hours, it is becoming more likely that Ana will make the transition into a tropical storm within the next day or so. The storm should remain situated near or over the Gulf Stream for the next 24-36 hours, which would allow for some slight strengthening. Later in the period, as the cyclone approaches the coast, weakening is expected due to the influence of cooler shelf waters. The system has not moved much over the past 24 hours and the initial motion estimate is 350/2. Ana is likely to remain located to the south of a stubborn mid-tropospheric blocking pattern for the next 48 hours or so. Global models show the block breaking down over the weekend, which should allow Ana to move inland over the southeastern U.S. Near the end of the forecast period, the system should accelerate northeastward in the flow ahead of a broad trough. The official track forecast is close to the dynamical model consensus. We appreciate the assistance of the Air Force Hurricane Hunters for providing valuable observations, given their limited resources prior to the start of the regular Atlantic Hurricane Season. Note that the name Ana is pronounced AH-nah. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 31.5N 77.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 31.6N 77.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 31.7N 77.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 31.9N 78.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 32.3N 78.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 33.4N 79.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 12/0000Z 36.1N 77.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 13/0000Z 41.0N 71.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Subtropical Storm ANA Graphics
2015-05-08 04:32:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 May 2015 02:32:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 May 2015 02:31:43 GMT
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Summary for Subtropical Storm ANA (AT1/AL012015)
2015-05-08 04:32:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST... As of 11:00 PM EDT Thu May 7 the center of ANA was located near 31.5, -77.6 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Subtropical Storm ANA Public Advisory Number 1
2015-05-08 04:32:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT THU MAY 07 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 080232 TCPAT1 BULLETIN SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 1100 PM EDT THU MAY 07 2015 ...SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.5N 77.6W ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST. THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH (4 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES (260 KM) FROM THE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT OBSERVED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. RAINFALL...ANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ANA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 200 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Subtropical Storm ANA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2015-05-08 04:32:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI MAY 08 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 080232 PWSAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 0300 UTC FRI MAY 08 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) RICHMOND VA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) NORFOLK VA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) GREENSBORO NC 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 5(10) 3(13) 1(14) RALEIGH NC 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) 4(12) 4(16) 1(17) CAPE HATTERAS 34 4 2( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) 1(11) 4(15) 2(17) CHARLOTTE NC 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 5(12) 3(15) 1(16) MOREHEAD CITY 34 10 5(15) 3(18) 2(20) 3(23) 3(26) X(26) WILMINGTON NC 34 17 8(25) 4(29) 4(33) 3(36) 2(38) 1(39) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 5 4( 9) 3(12) 3(15) 4(19) 3(22) X(22) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 27 11(38) 5(43) 4(47) 5(52) 1(53) 1(54) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CHARLESTON SC 34 21 13(34) 5(39) 4(43) 3(46) 2(48) X(48) CHARLESTON SC 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) 5(14) 2(16) X(16) SAVANNAH GA 34 7 6(13) 4(17) 3(20) 4(24) 2(26) X(26) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS 34 4 3( 7) 3(10) 1(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) JACKSONVILLE 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) DAYTONA BEACH 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) ORLANDO FL 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) PATRICK AFB 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) FT PIERCE FL 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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