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Subtropical Storm ANA Forecast Advisory Number 1
2015-05-08 04:31:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI MAY 08 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 080231 TCMAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 0300 UTC FRI MAY 08 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 77.6W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......140NE 0SE 80SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 77.6W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 77.6W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 31.6N 77.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 31.7N 77.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 31.9N 78.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 32.3N 78.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 33.4N 79.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 36.1N 77.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 41.0N 71.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 77.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Subtropical Storm FAY Forecast Discussion Number 3
2014-10-11 01:38:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 730 PM AST FRI OCT 10 2014 000 WTNT42 KNHC 102338 TCDAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 730 PM AST FRI OCT 10 2014 As the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft exited through an area of very deep convection in the northwestern quadrant of Fay, they found a peak 5,000 ft flight-level wind of 75 kt and peak SFMR winds in the 50-55 kt range. Based on these data, this special advisory is being issued to increase the initial intensity to 50 kt, which could be a bit conservative. The aircraft also found that the central pressure had fallen to 1000 mb on their last pass through the broad center. The intensity forecast has been adjusted upward through 36 hours, and shows the possibility for some additional strengthening before gradual weakening begins after 24 hours. Aircraft fixes and satellite imagery suggest that the initial motion is 340/10, a bit to the right of the previous track. Based on this, the 12-hour forecast position has been nudged a little to the east, but no changes were made to the NHC track at 24 hours and beyond. Note that this special advisory takes the place of the scheduled 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...intermediate advisory. The next advisory issued on Fay will be the full advisory package at 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2330Z 25.2N 64.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 26.0N 64.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 28.5N 65.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 31.7N 63.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 33.7N 60.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 13/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Subtropical Storm FAY Graphics
2014-10-11 01:33:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 10 Oct 2014 23:31:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 10 Oct 2014 23:31:44 GMT
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Summary for Subtropical Storm FAY (AT2/AL072014)
2014-10-11 01:32:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS FAY STRONGER... As of 7:30 PM AST Fri Oct 10 the center of FAY was located near 25.2, -64.2 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Subtropical Storm FAY Public Advisory Number 3
2014-10-11 01:32:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 730 PM AST FRI OCT 10 2014 000 WTNT32 KNHC 102332 TCPAT2 BULLETIN SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 730 PM AST FRI OCT 10 2014 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS FAY STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 730 PM AST...2330 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.2N 64.2W ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 730 PM AST...2330 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.2 WEST. THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TONIGHT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA BY LATE SATURDAY OR ON SUNDAY. RAINFALL...FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY FAY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-FACING SHORES OF BERMUDA BY SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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