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Subtropical Storm Oscar Forecast Discussion Number 2
2018-10-27 10:39:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Oct 27 2018 000 WTNT41 KNHC 270839 TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 500 AM AST Sat Oct 27 2018 Oscar's convective pattern has not changed much since the previous advisory. The surface center is displaced just to the southeast of a burst of deep convection, and other convective elements extend along a broken band over the eastern part of the circulation. Although satellite classifications have not increased, a drifting buoy (47546) near Oscar's center recently reported a pressure of 998.8 mb, implying a significant drop in the cyclone's central pressure from the previous estimate. Based on pressure-wind relationships, this low pressure would equate to maximum winds around 45 kt, and that is set as the initial intensity for this advisory. Oscar is careening around the northern side of a mid- to upper-level low, and its initial motion is now west-northwestward, or 300/10 kt. As the circulation becomes more vertically aligned in the coming days, the cyclone is forecast to be pushed westward to west-southwestward by the flow on the back side of a trough that is dropping southward over the eastern Atlantic. After 48 hours, Oscar is expected to recurve sharply and accelerate toward the north Atlantic ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough. The global models have come into much better agreement on Oscar's eventual recurvature and acceleration, and confidence in the NHC track forecast has increased. In fact, the 00Z guidance suite required a significant increase in Oscar's forecast forward speed on days 4 and 5, and the new NHC track forecast is much faster than the previous one at the end of the forecast period, jumping northward by about 10 degrees of latitude. This new forecast is close to the TVCN multi-model consensus and HCCA model on day 5, but it's still not as fast as the 00Z GFS and ECMWF guidance. Gradually decreasing shear and warmer waters ahead of Oscar should allow for a steady increase in intensity during the next few days, and the cyclone is also expected to take on a more tropical convective pattern in about 36 hours. The intensity models are showing a little more intensification than before, and the new NHC intensity forecast has been nudged upward, showing Oscar becoming a hurricane in 3-4 days. Still, this forecast lies near the lower bound of the intensity guidance, and additional upward adjustments may be required in future advisories. Now that most of the models are showing more acceleration of Oscar toward the north Atlantic later in the forecast period, there is also more definitive consensus that Oscar will become an extratropical low by day 5, and that is now indicated in the official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 27.3N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 27.1N 49.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 26.2N 52.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 25.7N 54.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 48H 29/0600Z 25.9N 56.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 28.4N 57.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 31/0600Z 35.0N 52.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 01/0600Z 45.0N 39.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg
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Subtropical Storm Oscar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2018-10-27 10:39:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 27 2018 000 FONT11 KNHC 270838 PWSAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018 0900 UTC SAT OCT 27 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Subtropical Storm Oscar (AT1/AL162018)
2018-10-27 10:39:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OSCAR STRENGTHENS AS ITS CENTRAL PRESSURE DROPS... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Oct 27 the center of Oscar was located near 27.3, -47.0 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Subtropical Storm Oscar Public Advisory Number 2
2018-10-27 10:39:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Oct 27 2018 000 WTNT31 KNHC 270838 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 500 AM AST Sat Oct 27 2018 ...OSCAR STRENGTHENS AS ITS CENTRAL PRESSURE DROPS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.3N 47.0W ABOUT 1120 MI...1800 KM ESE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1200 MI...1930 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Oscar was located near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 47.0 West. Oscar is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward to west-southwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected today and tonight, followed by a reduction in speed on Sunday. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and Oscar is expected to make a transition to a tropical storm on Sunday. Oscar could then become a hurricane by Monday night or Tuesday. Winds of 40 mph or greater extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches) based on data from a nearby drifting buoy. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Subtropical Storm Oscar Forecast Advisory Number 2
2018-10-27 10:38:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 27 2018 000 WTNT21 KNHC 270838 TCMAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018 0900 UTC SAT OCT 27 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 47.0W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 90SE 60SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 47.0W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 46.5W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 27.1N 49.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 30SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 26.2N 52.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 25.7N 54.6W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 25.9N 56.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 28.4N 57.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 35.0N 52.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 45.0N 39.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N 47.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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