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Subtropical Storm Oscar Graphics
2018-10-27 04:36:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 27 Oct 2018 02:36:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 27 Oct 2018 03:22:07 GMT
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Subtropical Storm Oscar Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-10-27 04:33:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 26 2018 000 WTNT41 KNHC 270233 TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 26 2018 Satellite imagery and scatterometer data indicate the circulation of the broad low pressure area over the central Atlantic has become better defined, with a low-level center developing to the south of a convective burst. The scatterometer data indicate 35-40 kt winds about 70-90 n mi from the center, and satellite imagery shows that the cyclone is entangled with a developing upper-level low. Based on these factors, advisories are being initiated on the latest in this year's series of subtropical storms, Oscar. Due to the recent development of the center, the initial motion is an uncertain 335/8. The track guidance is in excellent agreement that Oscar should should turn sharply westward and west- southwestward during the next 24 h as it pivots around the north side of the upper-level low, with this general motion continuing through about 48 h. After that, the cyclone should turn more westward at a slower forward speed as it approaches a weakness in the subtropical ridge. A northeastward motion appears likely from 72-120 h due to a mid-latitude trough approaching Oscar from the west. However, there are significant differences in the forward speed between the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models that make this part of the forecast low confidence. Overall, the forecast track is close to the TVCN consensus model, and it splits the difference between the divergent global models late in the forecast period. Gradual strengthening is forecast as Oscar remains in the deep-layer cyclonic flow of the upper-level low during the first 36-48 h. After that time, the global models suggests the system will have a chance to develop a tropical cyclone outflow pattern, and based on this the forecast calls for Oscar to become a tropical cyclone near the 48 h point. Interaction with the aforementioned mid-latitude trough may allow some additional intensification before Oscar encounters stronger shear near the 120 h point. The FV3 model shows a much weaker Oscar than the other dynamical models, and it is possible that dry air entrainment may hamper development through the forecast period. Thus, the intensity forecast is below the intensity consensus and on the weaker side of the intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 26.7N 45.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 27.2N 47.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 26.6N 50.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 25.6N 53.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 25.3N 55.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 72H 30/0000Z 26.5N 57.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 31/0000Z 30.0N 55.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 01/0000Z 34.0N 50.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Subtropical Storm Oscar (AT1/AL162018)
2018-10-27 04:33:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SUBTROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Oct 26 the center of Oscar was located near 26.7, -45.7 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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subtropical
Subtropical Storm Oscar Public Advisory Number 1
2018-10-27 04:33:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 26 2018 000 WTNT31 KNHC 270233 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 26 2018 ...SUBTROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.7N 45.7W ABOUT 1255 MI...2020 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1210 MI...1945 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Oscar was located near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 45.7 West. The storm is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the west and west-southwest at a faster forward speed is expected on Saturday, with this motion continuing through Sunday night. Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Oscar could become a tropical storm on Sunday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) mainly to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Subtropical Storm Oscar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2018-10-27 04:33:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 27 2018 000 FONT11 KNHC 270233 PWSAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018 0300 UTC SAT OCT 27 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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