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Subtropical Storm Leslie Graphics
2018-09-24 22:39:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Sep 2018 20:39:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Sep 2018 21:21:59 GMT
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leslie
subtropical
Subtropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 6
2018-09-24 22:37:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 24 2018 110 WTNT43 KNHC 242037 TCDAT3 Subtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 PM AST Mon Sep 24 2018 Leslie's cloud pattern has become rather ragged and less organized this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery indicates that the surface circulation has become elongated, from north to south, with multiple cloud swirls rotating within the larger gyre. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory and could be generous, based on the earlier partial ASCAT-A wind retrievals. The intensity forecast philosophy remains the same. Leslie is expected to interact with the incoming baroclinic zone approaching from the northwest and begin intensifying as it completes a post-tropical/extratropical transition by mid period. The official forecast is based on the IVCN multi-model intensity consensus through 36 hours, and a blend of the global models after Leslie becomes an extratropical low. Based on a centroid position of the aforementioned multiple surface swirls, Leslie continues to move in an eastward fashion, or 090/6 kt. Leslie should turn toward the east-northeast in 36 hours in response to an approaching mid-latitude trough and associated cold front from the northwest over the central Atlantic. The large-scale models are in good agreement with Leslie completing an extratropical transition at that time. Afterward, the post-tropical cyclone is forecast to become cut off from the mid- to upper-tropospheric westerly steering flow and move cyclonically toward the end of the week between the building Bermuda high to the west and mid-level ridging over the east Atlantic. The NHC forecast now shows Leslie as a strengthening extratropical low through day 5, in agreement with GFS, Canadian, and European models. Subsequently, the wind radii forecast has also been adjusted based on a compromise of the aforementioned large-scale models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 33.0N 47.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 32.9N 46.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 32.6N 44.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 33.4N 41.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 26/1800Z 35.4N 39.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 27/1800Z 36.9N 42.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 28/1800Z 36.7N 46.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 29/1800Z 36.2N 48.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Subtropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-09-24 22:37:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW WEDNESDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 24 the center of Leslie was located near 33.0, -47.2 with movement E at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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leslie
subtropical
Subtropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 6
2018-09-24 22:37:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 24 2018 942 WTNT33 KNHC 242037 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 PM AST Mon Sep 24 2018 ...LESLIE A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.0N 47.2W ABOUT 1185 MI...1905 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 33.0 North, longitude 47.2 West. The storm is moving toward the east near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday night. A turn toward the east-northeast with an increase in forward speed is forecast on Wednesday followed by a north-northeastward turn by Thursday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through Tuesday morning. Leslie is forecast to strengthen by mid-week while transitioning into an extratropical cyclone. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Subtropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2018-09-24 22:37:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 24 2018 968 FONT13 KNHC 242037 PWSAT3 SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 2100 UTC MON SEP 24 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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