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Subtropical Storm Joyce Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

2018-09-13 16:37:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 471 FONT15 KNHC 131437 PWSAT5 SUBTROPICAL STORM JOYCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 1500 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM JOYCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Summary for Subtropical Storm Joyce (AT5/AL102018)

2018-09-13 16:37:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...JOYCE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 13 the center of Joyce was located near 33.7, -43.7 with movement WSW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Subtropical Storm Joyce Public Advisory Number 4

2018-09-13 16:37:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 398 WTNT35 KNHC 131437 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 ...JOYCE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.7N 43.7W ABOUT 980 MI...1575 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Joyce was located near latitude 33.7 North, longitude 43.7 West. The storm is moving toward the west-southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the south-southwest and then toward the south is expected later today through early Friday. A gradual turn toward the east-northeast and northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected Saturday and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. While little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, Joyce could transition to a tropical storm in the next day or two. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km), mainly to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Subtropical Storm Joyce Forecast Advisory Number 4

2018-09-13 16:35:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 456 WTNT25 KNHC 131435 TCMAT5 SUBTROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 1500 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 43.7W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 120SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 43.7W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 43.4W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 33.1N 44.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 32.2N 44.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 31.9N 44.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 32.5N 42.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 35.5N 38.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.7N 43.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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