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Summary for Subtropical Storm Ernesto (AT5/AL052018)
2018-08-16 04:04:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ERNESTO MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Aug 15 the center of Ernesto was located near 39.7, -45.1 with movement NNE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Subtropical Storm Ernesto Public Advisory Number 4
2018-08-16 04:04:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 15 2018 492 WTNT35 KNHC 160204 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 15 2018 ...ERNESTO MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.7N 45.1W ABOUT 630 MI...1010 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 39.7 North, longitude 45.1 West. The storm is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is forecast tonight and early Thursday, with that motion continuing through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours. Ernesto is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone Thursday night or early Friday, and merge with a frontal zone near Ireland and the United Kingdom on Saturday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Subtropical Storm Ernesto Graphics
2018-08-15 22:44:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 15 Aug 2018 20:44:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 15 Aug 2018 21:22:07 GMT
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Subtropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-08-15 22:35:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Aug 15 2018 320 WTNT45 KNHC 152035 TCDAT5 Subtropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 500 PM AST Wed Aug 15 2018 Recent visible satellite imagery has shown a slight increase in convection near and to the east of the center of Ernesto this afternoon, but there has been little change in the overall organization of the subtropical storm. The satellite intensity estimate from TAFB remains an ST2.5, so the initial wind speed remains 35 kt for this advisory. Ernesto is forecast to remain over marginally warm SSTs and in a low wind shear environment during the next 12-24 hours, and some modest strengthening is anticipated. After that time, the cyclone will be moving over SSTs below 20C and into an area of increasing vertical wind shear. As a result, Ernesto is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone in about 36 hours, and merge with a frontal zone near Ireland and the United Kingdom in 3 to 4 days. Ernesto is moving northward or 005/8 kt. The cyclone should turn north-northeastward tonight ahead of a mid-level trough that is located off the coast of the eastern United States. Ernesto is forecast to become embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies by late Thursday and it is expected to accelerate northeastward at that time. The track guidance remains in good agreement, and the NHC forecast is again near the center of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 39.0N 45.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 40.4N 44.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 42.6N 42.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 45.1N 37.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 17/1800Z 48.0N 31.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 18/1800Z 53.0N 15.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 19/1800Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL ZONE $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Subtropical Storm Ernesto (AT5/AL052018)
2018-08-15 22:35:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ERNESTO MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Aug 15 the center of Ernesto was located near 39.0, -45.7 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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