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Subtropical Storm Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-09-13 10:58:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 024 WTNT45 KNHC 130858 TCDAT5 Subtropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 500 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 Joyce is still co-located with an upper-level low, and the most recent TAFB intensity classification was still a subtropical type. Furthermore, there has been no discernible increase of convection near the center of the cyclone, and cloud tops have actually warmed over the past few hours. Therefore, Joyce is still classified as subtropical for this advisory. Since the cyclone hasn't changed much in organization, the initial intensity has been held at 40 kt based on the TAFB subtropical intensity estimate, but this is still possibly generous. Joyce's struggle to maintain deep convection bodes poorly for its intensification prospects, considering that the shear is forecast by the global models to increase considerably over the next few days. SHIPS, LGEM, and the global models continue to show Joyce changing little in strength over the next few days until the system dissipates by early next week. The HWRF and HMON models are still outliers in showing substantial intensification, but even these models aren't quite as aggressive in strengthening Joyce as they were previously. The NHC forecast continues to favor the statistical guidance and is just below the intensity consensus at most forecast hours because it is frankly hard to believe that Joyce will become a hurricane in 48 h based on its current appearance. Joyce is still moving slowly southwestward with an initial motion of 220/5 kt. The global models remain in fairly good agreement that Joyce will move slowly southwestward for the next day or so as the storm remains in light steering flow. A turn toward the south will likely occur as Helene approaches from the southeast, followed by a quick turn northeastward once the larger tropical cyclone passes by. Joyce should then accelerate quickly northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough before dissipating southwest of the Azores. Little change was made to the official track forecast which is near the middle of the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 33.8N 43.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 33.3N 43.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 32.6N 44.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 32.0N 44.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 32.1N 43.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 34.6N 39.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 37.0N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Subtropical Storm Joyce Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2018-09-13 10:56:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 574 FONT15 KNHC 130856 PWSAT5 SUBTROPICAL STORM JOYCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 0900 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM JOYCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Summary for Subtropical Storm Joyce (AT5/AL102018)
2018-09-13 10:56:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOYCE DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Sep 13 the center of Joyce was located near 33.8, -43.1 with movement SW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Subtropical Storm Joyce Public Advisory Number 3
2018-09-13 10:56:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 439 WTNT35 KNHC 130856 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 500 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 ...JOYCE DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.8N 43.1W ABOUT 945 MI...1520 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Joyce was located near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 43.1 West. The storm is moving toward the southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slow southwestward motion is expected for the next couple of days. A turn toward the northeast with a rapid increase in forward motion is forecast to occur over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next couple of days. Joyce could become a tropical storm within the next day or so. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center, mainly to the northwest. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Subtropical Storm Joyce Forecast Advisory Number 3
2018-09-13 10:56:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 438 WTNT25 KNHC 130856 TCMAT5 SUBTROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 0900 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 43.1W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 120SE 240SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 43.1W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 42.9W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 33.3N 43.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 32.6N 44.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 32.0N 44.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 32.1N 43.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 34.6N 39.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 70SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 37.0N 32.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.8N 43.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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