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Subtropical Depression Andrea Forecast Advisory Number 4
2019-05-21 16:34:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE MAY 21 2019 000 WTNT21 KNHC 211434 TCMAT1 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012019 1500 UTC TUE MAY 21 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 69.2W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 69.2W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 69.2W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 31.5N 67.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 31.7N 66.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N 69.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Subtropical Depression Leslie Graphics
2018-09-25 10:39:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 25 Sep 2018 08:39:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 25 Sep 2018 09:22:03 GMT
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Summary for Subtropical Depression Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-09-25 10:37:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Sep 25 the center of Leslie was located near 31.9, -46.2 with movement SE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Subtropical Depression Leslie Public Advisory Number 8
2018-09-25 10:37:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 25 2018 978 WTNT33 KNHC 250837 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Subtropical Depression Leslie Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 AM AST Tue Sep 25 2018 ...LESLIE EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.9N 46.2W ABOUT 1165 MI...1870 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 140 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Depression Leslie was located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 46.2 West. The subtropical depression is moving toward the southeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A faster east to northeast motion is expected later today and Wednesday, followed by a turn to the north by Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Leslie is expected to lose its subtropical characteristics by tonight. Strengthening as an post-tropical cyclone is expected, and Leslie is forecast to become a large and powerful post-tropical cyclone by Wednesday with winds approaching hurricane force. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Subtropical Depression Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 8
2018-09-25 10:37:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 25 2018 977 WTNT43 KNHC 250837 TCDAT3 Subtropical Depression Leslie Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 AM AST Tue Sep 25 2018 No significant changes have occurred with Leslie overnight. Deep convection is generally confined to the eastern half of the circulation as dry air continues to wrap into the western portion of the cyclone. Satellite images indicate that the circulation has become stretched from north to south, likely due to the approach of a cold front that is currently located a few hundred miles to the northwest of Leslie. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data. The cold front is expected to merge with Leslie by tonight, causing extratropical transition. While transitioning, Leslie is forecast to strengthen for a couple of days due to significant baroclinic forcing, and the NHC intensity forecast takes the peak winds just below hurricane force at 36 and 48 hours. Later in the week, the extratropical system is expected to cut off and gradually lose its frontal features. Although this will likely cause some weakening, it should also allow the system to regain subtropical characteristics. The NHC intensity forecast is fairly similar to the previous one and near the IVCN consensus model. This forecast is also in fairly good agreement with the GFS and ECMWF models, which are usually reliable intensity models for large subtropical systems like Leslie. Based on the latest guidance, Leslie is now expected to transition back to a subtropical cyclone in 96 hours. Leslie has jogged to the southeast during the past several hours, but an eastward to northeastward motion is expected during the next day or so as Leslie makes its extratropical transition. After that time, a turn to the north is expected followed by a slow westward motion when Leslie cuts off from the mid-latitude flow. The models are in fairly good agreement on this looping motion, and the NHC track forecast follows the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 31.9N 46.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 32.1N 44.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 32.7N 41.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 26/1800Z 34.5N 40.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 27/0600Z 36.1N 41.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 28/0600Z 36.0N 45.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 29/0600Z 35.3N 48.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM 120H 30/0600Z 35.0N 50.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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