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Tropical Storm ANDREA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

2013-06-06 04:33:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUN 06 2013 000 FONT11 KNHC 060232 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013 0300 UTC THU JUN 06 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 5 9 14 19 20 23 TROP DEPRESSION 11 32 27 28 27 24 27 TROPICAL STORM 87 59 60 53 49 50 46 HURRICANE 2 3 5 6 5 6 5 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 3 4 5 5 6 4 HUR CAT 2 X X 1 1 X 1 1 HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 40KT 40KT 40KT 40KT 40KT 40KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 6(20) X(20) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) X(17) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) X(17) X(17) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) X(16) X(16) DOVER DE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 8(24) X(24) X(24) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 23(23) 4(27) X(27) X(27) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 25(25) 4(29) X(29) X(29) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 7(25) X(25) X(25) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 31(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 10(10) 27(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 11(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 19(19) 19(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 1( 1) 31(32) 7(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 2( 2) 32(34) 2(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAYPORT NS 34 X 10(10) 33(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) MAYPORT NS 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 1 12(13) 30(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) JACKSONVILLE 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 1 12(13) 14(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) ORLANDO FL 34 2 13(15) 5(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) COCOA BEACH FL 34 1 6( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) PATRICK AFB 34 1 6( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) FT PIERCE FL 34 1 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) W PALM BEACH 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARCO ISLAND 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FT MYERS FL 34 4 6(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) VENICE FL 34 9 13(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) TAMPA FL 34 7 26(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) CEDAR KEY FL 34 5 41(46) 7(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 1 13(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ST MARKS FL 34 2 18(20) 5(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) ST MARKS FL 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 4 14(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) GFMX 290N 850W 34 13 21(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 2 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 290N 870W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Tropical Storm ANDREA Graphics

2013-06-06 01:43:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 05 Jun 2013 23:43:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 05 Jun 2013 21:57:44 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm ANDREA (AT1/AL012013)

2013-06-06 01:43:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...ANDREA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... As of 8:00 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 the center of ANDREA was located near 25.5, -86.5 with movement N at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm ANDREA Public Advisory Number 1A

2013-06-06 01:43:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 PM EDT WED JUN 05 2013 000 WTNT31 KNHC 052342 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ANDREA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013 800 PM EDT WED JUN 05 2013 ...ANDREA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.5N 86.5W ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BOCA GRANDE TO OCHLOCKNEE RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST. ANDREA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H...AND THIS SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. A FASTER NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE CENTER OF ANDREA IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND THEN MOVE OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 42003 RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 38 MPH...61 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 42 MPH...68 KM/H. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD TO APALACHICOLA...2 TO 4 FT FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL...ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...EASTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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