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Tropical Storm ANDREA Forecast Discussion Number 3
2013-06-06 10:50:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT THU JUN 06 2013 000 WTNT41 KNHC 060850 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013 400 AM CDT THU JUN 06 2013 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT ANDREA IS STRONGER. THE PLANE REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 63 KNOTS AT 5000 FEET AND BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR WINDS OF 49 KNOTS IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT. THE CENTRAL PRESSURES REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WERE 997 MB FROM A DROP AND 996 MB EXTRAPOLATED. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS. WE MUST EMPHASIZE THAT THESE STRONG WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ANDREA IS PROBABLY NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY SINCE STRONG SHEAR SHOULD HALT ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION BEFORE LANDFALL. ANDREA WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...BUT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. FIXES FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT ANDREA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ABOUT 11 KNOTS. GIVEN THE FORECAST STEERING PATTERN PROVIDED BY GLOBAL MODELS...ANDREA SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AND TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SLOWER ECMWF AND THE FASTER GFS MODELS. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF ANDREA...THE PRIMARY EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES TODAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 27.0N 85.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 29.0N 84.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 32.0N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 07/1800Z 36.0N 78.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 08/0600Z 39.0N 73.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 09/0600Z 46.5N 59.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/0600Z 46.5N 37.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/0600Z 52.5N 23.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Tropical Storm ANDREA (AT1/AL012013)
2013-06-06 10:49:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ANDREA A LITTLE STRONGER HEADING TOWARD THE FLORIDA BIG BEND... As of 4:00 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 the center of ANDREA was located near 27.0, -85.9 with movement NNE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm ANDREA Public Advisory Number 3
2013-06-06 10:49:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT THU JUN 06 2013 000 WTNT31 KNHC 060849 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ANDREA ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013 400 AM CDT THU JUN 06 2013 ...ANDREA A LITTLE STRONGER HEADING TOWARD THE FLORIDA BIG BEND... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.0N 85.9W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FROM OCHLOCKNEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BOCA GRANDE TO INDIAN PASS * FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST. ANDREA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANDREA WILL REACH THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA LATER TODAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BY FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD TO APALACHICOLA...2 TO 4 FT FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT FLAGLER BEACH NORTH TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...1 TO 2 FT THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA LANDFALL LOCATION. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL...ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...EASTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE FLORIDA WEST COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE
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Tropical Storm ANDREA Forecast Advisory Number 3
2013-06-06 10:49:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUN 06 2013 000 WTNT21 KNHC 060849 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ANDREA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013 0900 UTC THU JUN 06 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FROM OCHLOCKNEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BOCA GRANDE TO INDIAN PASS * FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 85.9W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 85.9W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 86.2W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 29.0N 84.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 32.0N 82.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 36.0N 78.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 39.0N 73.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 46.5N 59.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 46.5N 37.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 52.5N 23.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.0N 85.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Tropical Storm ANDREA (AT1/AL012013)
2013-06-06 07:38:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ANDREA MOVING NORTHWARD A LITTLE FASTER... As of 1:00 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 the center of ANDREA was located near 26.8, -86.2 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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