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Tropical Storm ANDREA Graphics
2013-06-07 05:07:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 07 Jun 2013 02:32:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 07 Jun 2013 03:03:43 GMT
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Tropical Storm ANDREA Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
2013-06-07 04:49:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Fri, 07 Jun 2013 02:49:17 GMT
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Tropical Storm ANDREA Forecast Discussion Number 6
2013-06-07 04:35:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT THU JUN 06 2013 000 WTNT41 KNHC 070235 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013 1100 PM EDT THU JUN 06 2013 ANDREA HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY SINCE MOVING INLAND EARLIER THIS EVENING. THE ONLY REPORT OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ON LAND OR OVER WATER HAS COME FROM A SHIP OBSERVATION EAST OF SAINT AUGUSTINE...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KT. ANY WINDS THIS STRONG ARE LIKELY OCCURRING IN RANBANDS OFFSHORE TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ANDREA BEARS LITTLE RESEMBLANCE TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH A PRONOUNCED DRY INTRUSION NOTED OVER AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IN A BAND WELL REMOVED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THAT ONLY SHALLOW CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTER... INTERACTION WITH BAROCLINIC FEATURES WILL INCREASINGLY BECOME THE MECHANISM SUPPORTING THE CYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS ANDREA IS ABSORBED BY A LIFTING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEW NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS THINKING...AND SHOWS ANDREA BECOMING POST-TROPICAL BY 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER IF THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE DOES NOT IMPROVE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/13...AS THE CENTER SLOWED A LITTLE WHILE MOVING ONSHORE. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE CYCLONE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND THEN TURNING QUICKLY EASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE NEW NHC FORECST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION AND IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AFTERWARD. THE NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AND ALSO LIES NEAR THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT ANDREA WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...WE DO NOT EXPECT TO EXTEND THE TROPICAL WARNINGS ANY FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST. OUR CURRENT INTENTION IS THAT ANY HAZARDOUS WIND CONDITIONS FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE HANDLED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING PRODUCTS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 30.3N 82.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 07/1200Z 33.0N 80.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 08/0000Z 36.8N 76.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 08/1200Z 41.0N 70.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 09/0000Z 44.7N 63.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/0000Z 45.5N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/0000Z 45.5N 24.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm ANDREA Public Advisory Number 6
2013-06-07 04:33:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT THU JUN 06 2013 000 WTNT31 KNHC 070233 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ANDREA ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013 1100 PM EDT THU JUN 06 2013 ...ANDREA WEAKENING SLOWLY AS HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.3N 82.4W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM W OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ESE OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.4 WEST. ANDREA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF ANDREA WILL MOVE FROM NORTH FLORIDA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVERNIGHT AND THEN MOVE NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OVER WATER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER EASTERN GEORGIA...EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS AROUND 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD FROM EASTERN VIRGINIA TO EASTERN MAINE. ADDITIONAL RAIN TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN OUTER BANDS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF ANDREA OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... FLAGLER BEACH NORTH TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...1 TO 2 FT WATERS LEVELS ARE FALLING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. HOWEVER PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW COULD CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE NEXT HIGH TIDE OVERNIGHT. THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SURGE- RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TORNADOES...A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND NORTH CAROLINA. A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY FROM EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO COASTAL VIRGINIA. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm ANDREA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2013-06-07 04:32:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUN 07 2013 000 FONT11 KNHC 070231 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013 0300 UTC FRI JUN 07 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 4 9 13 19 21 NA TROP DEPRESSION 14 26 31 32 32 30 NA TROPICAL STORM 85 68 55 50 45 45 NA HURRICANE 1 3 4 6 4 5 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 3 4 5 4 4 NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 40KT 40KT 35KT 35KT 35KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 9(25) X(25) X(25) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) X(17) X(17) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 17(28) X(28) X(28) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 29(29) 4(33) X(33) X(33) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) 22(22) 8(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) 31(31) 8(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) 16(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MONTAUK POINT 34 X 1( 1) 21(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW YORK CITY 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) NEWARK NJ 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TRENTON NJ 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X 4( 4) 14(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) BALTIMORE MD 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DOVER DE 34 X 7( 7) 7(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WASHINGTON DC 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 18(18) 16(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X 18(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 44(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) NORFOLK NAS 50 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK VA 34 1 46(47) 3(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) NORFOLK VA 50 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 27(27) 11(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) WALLOPS CDA 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 3 15(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) CAPE HATTERAS 34 1 39(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) CHARLOTTE NC 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 4 49(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 16 51(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) WILMINGTON NC 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COLUMBIA SC 34 12 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MYRTLE BEACH 34 51 21(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) MYRTLE BEACH 50 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 77 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) CHARLESTON SC 50 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AUGUSTA GA 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 76 X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) MAYPORT NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JACKSONVILLE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DAYTONA BEACH 34 40 X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) CEDAR KEY FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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