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Tropical Storm ANDREA Forecast Discussion Number 8
2013-06-07 16:53:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT FRI JUN 07 2013 000 WTNT41 KNHC 071453 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013 1100 AM EDT FRI JUN 07 2013 ANDREA CONTINUES TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...BUT IT IS NOT YET FRONTAL AND SOME CONVECTION IS STILL FORMING NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 40 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A RECENT SUSTAINED WIND OF 40 KT AT THE OCEAN CREST PIER ON OAK ISLAND NORTH CAROLINA. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IT IS STILL ASSUMED THAT ANDREA WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM AND BECOME THE DOMINANT SYSTEM NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND...AND ANDREA SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY THIS LOW IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. ACCELERATION CONTINUES...AND ANDREA HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 035/24 KT. THERE IS NOT MUCH SPREAD AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE...HOWEVER THE ENTIRE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD...AND THIS SCENARIO KEEPS THE CENTER OF ANDREA...AND POTENTIALLY SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS...CLOSER TO THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BE HANDLED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING PRODUCTS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 34.4N 79.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 37.5N 76.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 08/1200Z 41.8N 70.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 09/0000Z 45.3N 63.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 09/1200Z 46.8N 54.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/1200Z...ABSORBED BY ANOTHER LOW $$ FORECASTER BERG/BEVEN
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Tropical Storm ANDREA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2013-06-07 16:52:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 07 2013 000 FONT11 KNHC 071452 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013 1500 UTC FRI JUN 07 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 3 9 15 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 13 25 39 38 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 85 68 48 44 NA NA NA HURRICANE 2 5 3 3 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 5 3 3 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X 1 NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 40KT 35KT 35KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 18(18) 14(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 19(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) 36(36) 2(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) YARMOUTH NS 34 X 3( 3) 39(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ST JOHN NB 34 X 1( 1) 17(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EASTPORT ME 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X 4( 4) 11(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) AUGUSTA ME 34 X 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) PORTLAND ME 34 X 12(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) CONCORD NH 34 X 12(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) BOSTON MA 34 X 33(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) BOSTON MA 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HYANNIS MA 34 X 54(54) 4(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) HYANNIS MA 50 X 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HYANNIS MA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NANTUCKET MA 34 X 55(55) 5(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) NANTUCKET MA 50 X 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NANTUCKET MA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X 44(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HARTFORD CT 34 X 23(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) MONTAUK POINT 34 X 51(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) MONTAUK POINT 50 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW YORK CITY 34 2 23(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) NEWARK NJ 34 2 14(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) TRENTON NJ 34 3 11(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ATLANTIC CITY 34 11 29(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALTIMORE MD 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) DOVER DE 34 20 10(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 11 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) WASHINGTON DC 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) OCEAN CITY MD 34 52 18(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) OCEAN CITY MD 50 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) RICHMOND VA 34 31 X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) NORFOLK NAS 34 84 X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) NORFOLK NAS 50 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK VA 34 86 X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) NORFOLK VA 50 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WALLOPS CDA 34 65 8(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) WALLOPS CDA 50 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) RALEIGH NC 34 22 X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) CAPE HATTERAS 34 48 X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) MOREHEAD CITY 34 71 X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) WILMINGTON NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MYRTLE BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHARLESTON SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm ANDREA (AT1/AL012013)
2013-06-07 16:52:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ANDREA ABOUT TO MOVE INTO NORTH CAROLINA... As of 11:00 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 the center of ANDREA was located near 34.4, -79.5 with movement NE at 28 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm ANDREA Forecast Advisory Number 8
2013-06-07 16:52:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 07 2013 000 WTNT21 KNHC 071452 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ANDREA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013 1500 UTC FRI JUN 07 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 79.5W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 24 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......130NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 79.5W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 80.2W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 37.5N 76.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 41.8N 70.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 45.3N 63.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 200SE 150SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 46.8N 54.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 200SE 150SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.4N 79.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG/BEVEN
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andrea
Tropical Storm ANDREA Public Advisory Number 8
2013-06-07 16:52:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT FRI JUN 07 2013 000 WTNT31 KNHC 071452 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ANDREA ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013 1100 AM EDT FRI JUN 07 2013 ...ANDREA ABOUT TO MOVE INTO NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.4N 79.5W ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SW OF FAYETTEVILLE NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM W OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST. ANDREA IS MOVING MORE QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 28 MPH...44 KM/H... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM EAST OF THE CENTER. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 46 MPH...74 KM/H...AND A GUST OF 53 MPH...85 KM/H WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT THE OCEAN CREST PIER ON OAK ISLAND NORTH CAROLINA. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES FROM CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO COASTAL MAINE. ADDITIONAL RAIN TOTALS OF UP TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH THIS MORNING WHICH COULD BRING STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THOSE AREAS. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... NORTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...1 TO 2 FT THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SURGE- RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA TO ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA TODAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG/BEVEN
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