je.st
news
Tag: sonia
Summary for Tropical Storm SONIA (EP3/EP182013)
2013-11-04 06:56:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SONIA APPROACHING THE COAST OF SINALOA MEXICO... As of 10:00 PM PST Sun Nov 3 the center of SONIA was located near 24.0, -107.8 with movement NNE at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
sonia
Tropical Storm SONIA Public Advisory Number 12A
2013-11-04 06:56:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM PST SUN NOV 03 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 040556 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SONIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 1000 PM PST SUN NOV 03 2013 ...SONIA APPROACHING THE COAST OF SINALOA MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM PST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.0N 107.8W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSW OF CULIACAN MEXICO ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM WNW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MAZATLAN TO ALTATA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF ALTATA TO TOPOLOBAMPO INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN WEST-CENTRAL MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SONIA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 PM PST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SONIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.8 WEST. SONIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SONIA SHOULD REACH THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER SONIA MOVES INLAND DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SONIA IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER MEXICO ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA AND POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAINFALL...SONIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...IN PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA...WESTERN DURANGO...AND SOUTHERN CHIHUAHUA. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...100 AM PST. $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm SONIA Graphics
2013-11-04 04:10:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 04 Nov 2013 02:32:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 04 Nov 2013 03:06:44 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
sonia
Tropical Storm SONIA Forecast Discussion Number 12
2013-11-04 03:32:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 PM PST SUN NOV 03 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 040232 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM SONIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 700 PM PST SUN NOV 03 2013 MUCH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SONIA IS BEING DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATION DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS REDUCED TO 35 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB. SONIA COULD WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION JUST BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL... AND RAPID WEAKENING WILL ENSUE AFTER THE CYCLONE MOVES INLAND DUE TO MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AND PROHIBITIVELY HIGH SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A 24-HOUR FORECAST POINT FOR A REMNANT LOW OVER MEXICO...ALTHOUGH IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO ACTUALLY MAINTAIN ITS IDENTITY FOR THAT LONG. THE CENTER LOCATION IS RATHER UNCERTAIN...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED AND THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 030/15. THIS MOTION SHOULD BE MORE OR LESS MAINTAINED FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WHILE SONIA IS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE FASTER INITIAL MOTION. THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM SONIA CONTINUES TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 23.2N 108.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 25.0N 107.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 05/0000Z 27.0N 104.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm SONIA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2013-11-04 03:31:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON NOV 04 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 040231 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM SONIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 0300 UTC MON NOV 04 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SONIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 4 50 NA NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 62 41 NA NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 35 10 NA NA NA NA NA HURRICANE X X NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X X NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 20KT NA NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Sites : [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] next »