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Tropical Storm SONIA Public Advisory Number 11A
2013-11-04 00:40:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM PST SUN NOV 03 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 032340 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SONIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 400 PM PST SUN NOV 03 2013 ...SONIA MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD MAINLAND MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM PST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 108.5W ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM 3SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSW OF CULIACAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MAZATLAN TO ALTATA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF ALTATA TO TOPOLOBAMPO INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND ELSEWHERE IN WEST-CENTRAL MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 PM PST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SONIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.5 WEST. SONIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK....THE CENTER OF SONIA WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE SONIA REACHES THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...AND RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL. SONIA IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER MEXICO ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. RAINFALL...SONIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...IN PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA...WESTERN DURANGO...AND SOUTHERN CHIHUAHUA. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...700 PM PST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm SONIA Graphics
2013-11-03 22:09:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 03 Nov 2013 20:32:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 03 Nov 2013 21:05:45 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm SONIA (EP3/EP182013)
2013-11-03 21:31:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SONIA HEADING TOWARD MAINLAND MEXICO... As of 1:00 PM PST Sun Nov 3 the center of SONIA was located near 21.4, -109.1 with movement NNE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm SONIA Public Advisory Number 11
2013-11-03 21:31:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM PST SUN NOV 03 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 032031 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SONIA ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 100 PM PST SUN NOV 03 2013 ...SONIA HEADING TOWARD MAINLAND MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 109.1W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSW OF CULIACAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MAZATLAN TO ALTATA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF ALTATA TO TOPOLOBAMPO INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND ELSEWHERE IN WEST-CENTRAL MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SONIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.1 WEST. SONIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK....THE CENTER OF SONIA WILL CONTINUE TO PASS SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THIS EVENING... AND APPROACH THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE SONIA REACHES THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...AND RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL. SONIA IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER MEXICO ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. RAINFALL...SONIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...IN PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA...WESTERN DURANGO...AND SOUTHERN CHIHUAHUA. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...400 PM PST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...700 PM PST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm SONIA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2013-11-03 21:31:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN NOV 03 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 032031 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM SONIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 2100 UTC SUN NOV 03 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SONIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 27 NA NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 34 54 NA NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 64 20 NA NA NA NA NA HURRICANE X X NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X X NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 25KT NA NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CULIACAN 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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