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Tropical Storm SONIA Forecast Discussion Number 10

2013-11-03 15:44:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 700 AM PST SUN NOV 03 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 031444 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM SONIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 700 AM PST SUN NOV 03 2013 THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SONIA HAS EXPANDED THIS MORNING. EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED JUST BENEATH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE LARGE CONVECTIVE MASS. BASED ON THE SLIGHTLY IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.5 AND 3.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 40 KT. THE RECENT STRENGTHENING APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF DECREASING SHEAR AS SONIA MOVED BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVERNIGHT. THIS RELAXATION IN SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN SHEAR TONIGHT....AND NO SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE AROUND THE TIME SONIA REACHES THE COAST AS THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS TO DECOUPLE. SONIA IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO. THE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL NORTHWARD OR 005 DEGREES AT 7 KT. SONIA SHOULD TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD VERY SOON AS DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO. SONIA SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE LATER TODAY AND MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO MONDAY MORNING. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE REQUIRED FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 19.9N 109.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 21.6N 109.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 23.7N 107.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 25.9N 106.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm SONIA Public Advisory Number 10

2013-11-03 15:44:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 700 AM PST SUN NOV 03 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 031444 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM SONIA ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 700 AM PST SUN NOV 03 2013 ...SONIA A LITTLE STRONGER... ...EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD VERY SOON... SUMMARY OF 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 109.8W ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSW OF CULIACAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MAZATLAN TO ALTATA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF ALTATA TO TOPOLOBAMPO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND ELSEWHERE IN WEST-CENTRAL MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SONIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.8 WEST. SONIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ON THE FORECAST TRACK.... THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND APPROACH THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY EARLY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE SONIA REACHES THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. RAPID WEAKENING WILL BEGIN AFTER SONIA MAKES LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA EARLY MONDAY. RAINFALL...SONIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SINALOA AND WESTERN DURANGO. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1000 AM PST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...100 PM PST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm SONIA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

2013-11-03 15:44:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 03 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 031444 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM SONIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 1500 UTC SUN NOV 03 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SONIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 9 35 NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 13 46 45 NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 86 44 20 NA NA NA NA HURRICANE 1 1 1 NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 1 1 NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 35KT 25KT NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CULIACAN 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAZATLAN 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm SONIA Forecast Advisory Number 10

2013-11-03 15:42:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 03 2013 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 031442 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM SONIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 1500 UTC SUN NOV 03 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MAZATLAN TO ALTATA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF ALTATA TO TOPOLOBAMPO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND ELSEWHERE IN WEST-CENTRAL MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 109.8W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 20NE 20SE 0SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 109.8W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 110.0W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.6N 109.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 23.7N 107.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 25.9N 106.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 109.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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