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Tropical Storm Bud Public Advisory Number 17
2018-06-13 22:34:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 132033 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bud Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 300 PM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018 ...BUD WEAKENS FURTHER WHILE MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 108.9W ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Santa Fe to La Paz, Mexico, including Cabo San Lucas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 108.9 West. Bud is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. Bud is forecast to accelerate northward on Thursday and continue that motion into Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Bud is expected to cross southern Baja California Sur late Thursday and move over the Gulf of California late on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Although slow weakening is expected during the next day or so, Bud is forecast to still be a tropical storm when it reaches southern Baja California Sur late Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area by Thursday evening. RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches across much of southwestern Mexico through Thursday, with isolated maximum amounts of 3 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Bud is also expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated totals of 5 inches across southern portions of Baja California Sur and Sonora in northwestern Mexico through Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Bud will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, western mainland Mexico, and the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Bud Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2018-06-13 22:34:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUN 13 2018 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 132033 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 2100 UTC WED JUN 13 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 10(11) 32(43) 2(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 7( 8) 34(42) 3(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 13(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 11(19) X(19) X(19) HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CULIACAN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 17 1(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Bud Forecast Advisory Number 17
2018-06-13 22:33:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUN 13 2018 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 132033 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 2100 UTC WED JUN 13 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SANTA FE TO LA PAZ... MEXICO... INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 108.9W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 108.9W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 108.8W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 20.7N 109.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 21.8N 109.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 23.3N 109.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.6N 109.9W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 31.5N 108.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 108.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Bud Graphics
2018-06-13 19:58:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 13 Jun 2018 17:58:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 13 Jun 2018 15:25:34 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Bud (EP3/EP032018)
2018-06-13 19:56:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...BUD WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE WHILE MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 12:00 PM MDT Wed Jun 13 the center of Bud was located near 19.6, -108.8 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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