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Hurricane Bud Graphics
2018-06-13 10:36:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 13 Jun 2018 08:36:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 13 Jun 2018 08:36:42 GMT
Hurricane Bud Forecast Discussion Number 15
2018-06-13 10:34:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 130833 TCDEP3 Hurricane Bud Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 300 AM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018 Bud continues to be adversely affect by cooler waters and decreasing oceanic heat content. The eye has disappeared from geostationary imagery, and the inner core convection has been eroded. Using a blend of objective and subjective Dvorak estimates, the current intensity is set at 65 kt for this advisory. Bud should encounter even cooler waters over the next day or so, which should result in additional weakening. The official intensity forecast is similar to the latest model consensus and to the DSHIPS output. Despite Bud's expected weakening, the cyclone is still anticipated to be a tropical storm when it reaches southern Baja California Sur in about 48 hours. A mid-level high centered over the southwestern United States has been partly blocking Bud's north-northwestward advance and the current motion of the cyclone is about 330/4 kt. A mid-level trough approaching southern California and the northern Baja California peninsula should cause Bud to move faster toward the north in a couple of days. Not much change has been made to the previous official forecast, and the new NHC forecast is close the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach, HCCA, track. Bud's remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest over the weekend, resulting in significant rains and possible flash flooding across those areas. For further information on the heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather service office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 19.1N 108.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 19.6N 109.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 20.6N 109.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 21.6N 109.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 23.1N 110.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 27.5N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 17/0600Z 34.0N 107.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Hurricane Bud (EP3/EP032018)
2018-06-13 10:33:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...BUD LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... As of 3:00 AM MDT Wed Jun 13 the center of Bud was located near 19.1, -108.8 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane Bud Public Advisory Number 15
2018-06-13 10:33:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 130833 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Bud Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 300 AM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018 ...BUD LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 108.8W ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Santa Fe to La Paz, Mexico, including Cabo San Lucas A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bud was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 108.8 West. Bud is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected into Thursday. Bud is forecast to accelerate northward late Thursday into Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Bud will cross southern Baja California Sur early Friday and move over the Gulf of California later on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Bud is expected to become a tropical storm later today. Bud is forecast to still be a tropical storm when it reaches southern Baja California Sur late Thursday or Thursday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning on Thursday. RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across much of southwestern Mexico through Thursday, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Bud is also expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated totals of 5 inches across southern portions of Baja California Sur and Sonora in northwestern Mexico through Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Bud will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, western mainland Mexico, and the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Bud Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2018-06-13 10:33:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUN 13 2018 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 130833 PWSEP3 HURRICANE BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 0900 UTC WED JUN 13 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 2 3( 5) 10(15) 29(44) 4(48) X(48) X(48) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 3( 4) 7(11) 29(40) 5(45) X(45) X(45) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LA PAZ 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 12(15) 16(31) X(31) X(31) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LORETO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 13(15) X(15) X(15) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 1(21) X(21) HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 15(17) 1(18) X(18) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CULIACAN 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAZATLAN 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN BLAS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 28 24(52) 2(54) X(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) 20N 110W 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 4 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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